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	Agricultural drought risk analysis based on three main crops in prefecture-level cities in the monsoon region of east China
	Xu X. C. ; Ge Q. S. ; Zheng J. Y. ; Dai E. F. ; Zhang X. Z. ; He S. F. ; Liu G. X.
	2013
关键词	The monsoon region of east China Consecutive rainless days Risk loss Three main crops Agricultural drought management
英文摘要	Drought, a frequent environmental disaster in the monsoon region of east China, significantly affects the agricultural economy. In recent years, researchers have emphasised drought risk management. This paper presents a preliminary method to analyse the risk of agricultural drought with regard to the loss of three main crops in individual prefecture-level cities in the monsoon region of east China. In this study, the agricultural drought risk is assessed by developing the index of consecutive rainless days and establishing loss rate curves based on the historical drought data from 1995 to 2008. The results show that the North China is seriously affected by drought hazard. Northeast China is the most sensitive to drought due to its large sown crop areas and weak irrigation. Approximately 11 % of the cities are in the extreme risk category; this category includes 26 % of the cultivated land area and 11 % of the total crop yields in the region. Twenty-three per cent of the cities, accounting for 28.5 % of the total cultivated land area and 26.4 % of the crop yields of the study area, are in high-risk areas, and 77 % of the cities with high and extreme risk levels are distributed in North and Northeast China. Moreover, 64 % of the cities in the monsoon region of East China are in moderate- and low-risk levels. These cities are primarily located south of the Yangtze River. In conclusion, minimising the risk of agricultural drought must be emphasised in northern China because of the high level of risk.
出处	Natural Hazards
卷	66
期	2
页	1257-1272
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	0921-030X
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/30131]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu X. C.,Ge Q. S.,Zheng J. Y.,et al. Agricultural drought risk analysis based on three main crops in prefecture-level cities in the monsoon region of east China. 2013.

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