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	Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change
	Elliott J. ; Deryng D. ; Mueller C. ; Frieler K. ; Konzmann M. ; Gerten D. ; Glotter M. ; Florke M. ; Wada Y. ; Best N. ; Eisner S. ; Fekete B. M. ; Folberth C. ; Foster I. ; Gosling S. N. ; Haddeland I. ; Khabarov N. ; Ludwig F. ; Masaki Y. ; Olin S. ; Rosenzweig C. ; Ruane A. C. ; Satoh Y. ; Schmid E. ; Stacke T. ; Tang Q. H. ; Wisser D.
	2014
关键词	adaptation agriculture hydrology uncertainty model description requirements food scarcity impacts part
英文摘要	We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 4001,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.
出处	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
卷	111
期	9
页	3239-3244
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	0027-8424
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/29905]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Elliott J.,Deryng D.,Mueller C.,et al. Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. 2014.

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