降雨滑坡预警平台系统研究——以重庆市万州区为例

CORC > 成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前）

题名	降雨滑坡预警平台系统研究——以重庆市万州区为例
作者	田宏岭
学位类别	博士
答辩日期	2007
授予单位	中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
授予地点	成都
导师	乔建平
关键词	滑坡预警系统软件工程 GIS开发
学位专业	自然地理学
中文摘要	滑坡灾害属于自然灾害中的最重要灾害类型之一，给人类带来无穷的灾难，夺走了无数人的生命，造成无法估量的财产损失，从而制约了区域经济的可持续发展。导致灾害发生的原因之一是它的突发性和不稳定性，因此滑坡的预测预报就显得非常重要。国内外对滑坡的预测预报开展较多，但能够达到实用的较少。目前对于降雨滑坡的预警已得到越来越多的应用，本研究经过对国内外（降雨）滑坡预警系统现状的比较，得出结论为：目前的滑坡降雨滑坡预警系统有的只有天气预警，未考虑地形、地貌等因素；有的是以个体滑坡变形监测预警为主，不适合区域范围内大规模滑坡的预警；有的是以数据库系统为主，缺乏电子地图的直观显示和简便的操作。本研究以相对先进的客观权重法进行滑坡危险度区划来作为空间预警手段，以降雨量作为时间预警的主要条件。并针对现有系统多是以科学研究为主，不适用于基层的减灾、防灾的缺陷，以软件工程理论方法作为指导开发研究适用于灾害管理部门使用的基于GIS的滑坡预警系统平台。研究区域重庆市万州区是三峡库区的滑坡灾害最严重的地区，据统计滑坡主要集中在7-9月份，降雨为其主要诱发因素。在同项目中已完成的可信度较高的大比例尺滑坡危险度分区图与降雨与滑坡关系研究的基础上，利用目前的软件开发与数据库技术和地理信息系统技术将该区域的降雨滑坡规则与滑坡危险度分区相叠加，得出预警的模型。经过对系统用户详细调查与分析，对系统的目标人群和达到目标进行精确定位，对比相关GIS软件系统的开发经验，进行合理的系统总体结构、详细功能及系统界面设计，实现了模块化主体结构；经过对开发质量进行规范，合理规划开发进度，在重庆市气象局提供的降雨资料基础上开发出的降雨滑坡预警系统，为万州区的降雨滑坡提供一个有效的预警平台和方便实用的灾害信息管理工具。系统中根据信息的类型和所要表现的方式，以电子地图、数据表格、统计图表和地图输出等图形化、视觉化的手段表现预警过程及一定区域内滑坡发生的可能，提供给无专业基础的普通公务人员使用。本研究的特色与创新之处：1)作为大尺度空间的降雨滑坡预警系统，达到了预警系统国家要求。2)以多种模式直观表现滑坡灾害（空间数据、属性数据、照片、图形等），方便用户了解灾害情形，预警信息及不同级别灾害预警时的对策。3)针对国内GIS应用系统开发忽略用户调查、软件设计，只顾代码编写的现状，通过软件工程理论的方法，以用户需求调查为基础，强调系统设计、测试和维护
英文摘要	Landslide caused the most serious problems in natural disaster. It brings numerous tragedies to human being: it take lives, make wealth loss, and hold up the sustainable development of regional economy. The reason that causes disaster is landslide is unstable and sudden. Therefore the forecasting of landslide is very important. Though there many domestic and overseas studies of prediction methods on landslide, few can succeed. The prediction on rainfall-induced landslide is rather practical. This thesis researched the current of rainfall-induced landslide prediction system, and drew conclusions: Some systems are just weather forecast, have no relations with the topographty, physiognomy and other landslide factors. Some systems are monitoring and forecasting of single landslide and can not fit for local large-scale landslides. Some systems are just databases and lack of electronic-map display and simple & convenient operations. This thesis uses impersonal weights for landslide zonation and makes it as space-prediction, the rain forecast as time-prediction. As most current prediction systems are for science research, and do not fit for disaster-reduction management and disaster-prevention, this thesis aimed at a GIS based prediction platform for disaster-reduction department which directed by software-engineering theories.The target research area is located in Wanzhou, Chongqing, China, where the landslide hazards is most severe in the Three Gorges area. According to the statistic data, 90% landslides happened during July to September and rain is its principal causing factor. On the base of already-finished credible big-scale landslide zonation maps and the research of rain-landslide relation, overlay these two together and the prediction model was achieved (with the help of GIS, database, and software developing technology).After detailed user demands investigate, the target population and system target were precisely located. Contrast with similar GIS systems, the total structure and detail function were confirmed. With interface design, the user-kind interface were made and every function with carried out by different modular. The developing process and quality was ensured. The rain data is provided by the Chongqing Meteorological Bureau. This research provides a effective prediction platform and a easy-use landslide disaster management tool for Wanzhou government. This prediction system provides electronic maps, data tables, figures, and other visual and graphical means to express prediction process and the probability of landslide of a local area to none-professional officials.The study consists of three features as follows:As a big-scale rainfall-induced landslide prediction system, it meet the requirements of government.Most domestic GIS apply system lack of scientific process, and just concentrated on is coding. This system have a rather formal developing process which is directed by software engineering, and based on user-demand investigate, it emphasized on system design and system test and maintenance. The system provided many view modes (special data, attribute data, pictures, figures) to make it easy to understand the process, landslide prediction, and corresponding treatments.
语种	中文
学科主题	自然地理学 ; 灾害学
公开日期	2010-10-21
分类号	P42;P20
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/2266]
专题	成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前）成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	田宏岭. 降雨滑坡预警平台系统研究——以重庆市万州区为例[D]. 成都. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所. 2007.