QQ客服 官方微博 反馈留言

题名	泥石流灾害风险管理理论与关键技术
作者	韩用顺
学位类别	博士
答辩日期	2008
授予单位	中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
授予地点	成都
导师	崔鹏
关键词	泥石流灾害 风险辨识 风险评价 风险管理 灾害保险 蒋家沟 东川城区 金沙江流域
学位专业	自然地理学
中文摘要	近年来，随着社会经济快速发展和人类活动强度不断加大，在全球气候变化叠加影响之下，泥石流活动日益频繁且成灾日趋严重，已成为制约山区社会经济发展的重大瓶颈和防灾减灾工作的突出问题。泥石流灾害风险管理是泥石流防灾减灾的重要途径，但目前仍较缺乏泥石流灾害风险管理的理论指导和关键技术支撑。因此，本文针对这一问题，从泥石流灾害风险管理的基础理论入手，研究了泥石流灾害风险辨识、风险评价、灾害资源化和灾害保险等关键技术，建立了适合我国国情和灾情特点的泥石流灾害风险管理实现途径，并选择蒋家沟流域、东川城区和金沙江流域为典型研究区，完成了相关理论与技术的实证研究，适应了防灾减灾工作的实际需要，具有重要的理论价值和现实意义，取得了下列主要成果： 1．构建了适合我国国情和灾情特点的泥石流灾害风险管理理论基础和框架体系。从灾害系统和灾害管理的角度，系统分析了泥石流成灾特点与灾害系统、风险评价和风险管理的概念、原理、内容和方法，总结了泥石流灾害风险管理的理论基础和关键技术，从而为后续研究提供指导。2．建立了基于形成因素贡献率的潜在泥石流判识模型。引入泥石流确定性系数(CF)与逻辑回归方法，借助GIS技术，进行了基于形成因素贡献率的潜在泥石流判识研究，建立了基于概率分布的潜在泥石流风险判识的定量评价模型，解决了泥石流风险辨识中的评价因子贡献率分析、关键因子选择、多源异质数据合并和评价指标权重确定等关键问题。3．改进了泥石流危险性评价、易损性评价、破坏损失评价和风险综合评价模型和方法。泥石流灾害危险性评价考虑了灾害的历史危险性和潜在危险性，易损性评价基于泥石流危险性分区范围进行单元划分和信息处理，泥石流破坏损失评价兼顾了受灾体数量、价值和破坏损失率、以及防治工程的减灾有效度，并结合GIS技术，实现了各种评价指标的定量描述，提高了泥石流灾害风险评价的科学性和易操作性。4．分析了泥石流灾害风险可管理性，确定了我国泥石流灾害风险可接受水平（可接受人员伤亡的平均年概率为0.69×10-6，可接受直接经济损失的平均年概率为2.63×10-4），探讨了允许风险决策方法，构建了适合我国国情和灾情特点的泥石流灾害风险管理的实现途径。5．利用泥石流的建设性与破坏性、灾与利的双重作用与特性，进行了山区城镇建设、农业资源化利用、建筑建材原料和景观资源开发等泥石流灾害资源化的有益探索，并通过人畜－土地载荷平衡和效益评价分析，提出了农业资源化途径和方式。6．进行了泥石流灾害保险的保费分析，建立了保险费率厘定模型，探索了我国泥石流灾害保险运行机制，并以云南省昆明市东川城区为例，完成了泥石流灾害保险理论和技术的实证研究。7．验证了泥石流灾害风险评价和风险管理模型与关键技术的可行性和合理性。以金沙江流域为例，完成了区域泥石流灾害危险性评价、易损性评价和风险评价的实证研究；选择云南省昆明市东川城区为典型区，完成了单沟泥石流灾害风险评价、灾害资源化和灾害保险的实证研究。研究结果与调查资料和实际状况较为一致，验证了本研究中相关模型与技术的可行性和合理性。
英文摘要	China is one of the countries which are seriously affected by debris flows in the world. In recent years, with the rapid development of society and economy, the ever-increasing intensity of human activities and the influence of global-climate change, debris flows in China become more and more frequent and serious, which have become a big barrier to the social-economic development of mountain areas and a severe problem of disaster prevention and mitigation. However, effective prevention and mitigation of debris flow disaster depend on a host of scientific study and management. Therefore, this dissertation studied basic theories and key technologies of debris-flow risk management, established feasible methodologies of debris-flow risk identification and assessment and explored ways of debris-flow risk management and disaster insurance mechanism which are appropriate for China's actual conditions. These studies not only meet the need of debris-flow disaster prevention and mitigation but also fall into the frontier of debris-flow disaster research, thus being of great importance.Based on analyzing and utilizing a large number of newest findings and references at home and abroad, the dissertation started with basic theories of debris-flow risk management and then made a systemic study on key technologies of debris-flow risk identification, risk assessment, risk management, reclaiming resources from debris flow and debris-flow disaster insurance, etc. In addition, Jiangjia Ravine, Dongchuan District and Jinsha River Basin were selected as case studies to testify basic theories and key technologies related. In a word, there were some original results and contents as follows: a. To study basic theories of debris-flow managementContents of this part are to expound the disaster-causing characteristic of debris flow and debris-flow disaster system, to elaborate on basic concepts and principles of risk and debris-flow risk, to discuss main contents, theoretic framework and key technologies of debris-flow risk management and to explain the support technologies of debris-flow risk analysis in a systematic way, thus establishing the theoretical basis of debris-flow risk management and providing a guide to the following studies.b. To establish the assessment model for identifying potential debris flow and make a study on identifying potential debris-flow riskThe first is to summarize and analyze the field-investigation method of identifying potential debris flow gullies. The second is to introduce the deterministic coefficient of debris flow and the binary logical regression, to make the study on debris-flow risk identification by analyzing the triggering factors or the disaster-causing factors of debris flow and to establish a quantitative susceptibility assessment model for identifying potential debris flow. The last is to take Jiangjia Ravine as a case study for validating the risk-identifying model of debris flow. The results showed that the potential risk-identification model can solve some problems of risk assessment, such as how to select assessed factors, how to intersect excessive and heterogeneous data and how to make sure the weight of every key factor.c. To set up the debris-flow risk assessment model and make a study on debris-flow risk assessmentThe first is to establish debris-flow hazard assessment models based on historical disaster factors and potential disaster-causing factors and make hazard assessment and regionalization of debris flow, then to set up object-affected vulnerability models based on results of debris-flow hazard assessment and make vulnerability assessment and regionalization of disaster-affecting objects, consequently to establish failure-loss assessment models of debris flow and make assessment on failure losses caused by debris flow. The last is to make a comprehensive debris-flow risk assessment based on the three above assessment models.d. To make a study on debris-flow risk management The first is to discuss the manageability of debris flow risk, then to study and calculate the acceptable risk standard of debris flow in China, consequently to expound the risk decision-making methods of debris flow and the implementing approaches to debris-flow risk management. The last is to explore ways of reclaiming resources from debris flow and the mechanism of debris-flow disaster insurance, which extend the range and orientation of debris-flow research and can provide some useful references to China’s debris-flow risk management or risk transfer.e. To make case studies on debris-flow risk assessment and managementThe first is to take Jingsha River Basin as a case study for make regional hazard, vulnerability, failure-loss and risk assessment of debris flow, the second is to take Dongchuan District as a case study for make single gully risk assessment, management and disaster insurance of debris flow. Findings showed that results of risk assessment were in accordance with field-investigation data and actual distribution of debris flow, which validate the scientificity of the concerned models and technologies put forward in the dissertation.
语种	中文
学科主题	灾害学
公开日期	2010-10-15
分类号	F84;F06
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/2218]
专题	成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前）
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	韩用顺. 泥石流灾害风险管理理论与关键技术[D]. 成都. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所. 2008.

个性服务

查看访问统计

相关权益政策

暂无数据

收藏/分享

除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。