Uncertainty in the projected changes of Sahel summer rainfall under global warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles

doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06284-3

	Uncertainty in the projected changes of Sahel summer rainfall under global warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles
	Zhang, Zhiyuan 1,2,3; Li, Gen 2,3
刊名	CLIMATE DYNAMICS
	2022-05-03
页码	19
关键词	Sahel summer rainfall Future projection Inter-model uncertainty Global warming Atlantic Ocean warming Atmospheric teleconnection
ISSN号	0930-7575
DOI	10.1007/s00382-022-06284-3
通讯作者	Li, Gen(ligen@hhu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	The Sahel summer rainfall is of great significance to the local social, economic, and cultural environment. In the context of a long Sahel megadrought in the last thirty years of the twentieth century, the future change of Sahel summer rainfall under global warming has aroused wide attention. Based on the historical simulations and high emission scenario experiments from 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) models and 22 CMIP6 models, this study investigates the future projections of Sahel summer rainfall under global warming. The results show that the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean projects a slight increase (1-2%/celcius) of summer rainfall over the Sahel in the future which seems to be due to the thermodynamic changes and opposed by the dynamic changes, but that the inter-model spread is due to the latter. We find that, in particular, the inter-model spreads in the extratropical northern and tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) changes are two important sources of the uncertainty in the Sahel summer rainfall projections via two different atmospheric teleconnection processes. On the one hand, a warmer northern Atlantic SST would induce an anomalous large-scale cyclone over North Africa and Europe, and the southern branch would strengthen the western African monsoonal circulation, leading to a wetter Sahel. On the other hand, a warmer tropical Atlantic SST would weaken the regional circulation, resulting in a drier Sahel. Our results suggest that an improved projection of the future Atlantic warming, especially the differential warming between the northern and tropical Atlantic, is a priority for the reliable future projection of Sahel summer rainfall.
资助项目	Natural Science Foundation of China[41831175] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[B200202138] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[B210201015] ; Open Research Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology of China[SKLLQG1939]
WOS关键词	WEST-AFRICAN MONSOON ; FUTURE PROJECTIONS ; TROPICAL RAINFALL ; CLIMATE ; PRECIPITATION ; 20TH-CENTURY ; VARIABILITY ; DROUGHT ; LAND ; CIRCULATION
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000790178900002
资助机构	Natural Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Open Research Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.ieecas.cn/handle/361006/17722]
专题	中国科学院地球环境研究所
通讯作者	Li, Gen
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian, Peoples R China 2.Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Zhuhai, Zhuhai, Peoples R China 3.Hohai Univ, Coll Oceanog, Nanjing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Zhiyuan,Li, Gen. Uncertainty in the projected changes of Sahel summer rainfall under global warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2022:19.
APA	Zhang, Zhiyuan,&Li, Gen.(2022).Uncertainty in the projected changes of Sahel summer rainfall under global warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,19.
MLA	Zhang, Zhiyuan,et al."Uncertainty in the projected changes of Sahel summer rainfall under global warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles".CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2022):19.