Contributions of tropical-extratropical oceans to the prediction skill of ENSO after 2000

doi:10.1080/16742834.2020.1755600

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	Contributions of tropical-extratropical oceans to the prediction skill of ENSO after 2000
	SHI, Liang 2; DING, Ruiqiang 1
刊名	ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS
	2020-07-03
卷号	13 期号:4 页码:338-345
关键词	ENSO predictability Northern tropical Atlantic SST Victoria mode South Pacific quadrupole
ISSN号	1674-2834
DOI	10.1080/16742834.2020.1755600
英文摘要	The skill of most ENSO prediction models has declined significantly since 2000. This decline may be due to a weakening of the correlation between tropical predictors and ENSO. Moreover, the effects of extratropical ocean variability on ENSO have increased during this period. To improve ENSO predictability, the authors investigate the influence of the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans on ENSO during the pre-2000 and post-2000 periods, and find that the influence of the northern tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (NTA SST) on ENSO has significantly increased since 2000. Furthermore, there is a much earlier and stronger correlation between NTA SST and ENSO over the central-eastern Pacific during June-July-August in the post-2000 period compared with the pre-2000 period. The extratropical Pacific SST predictors for ENSO retain an approximate 10-month lead time after 2000. The authors use SST signals in the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific to predict ENSO using a statistical prediction model. This results in a significant improvement in ENSO prediction skill and an obvious decrease in the spring predictability barrier phenomenon of ENSO. These results indicate that extratropical Atlantic and Pacific SSTs can make substantial contributions to ENSO prediction, and can be used to enhance ENSO predictability after 2000.
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000544379800001
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.lut.edu.cn/handle/2XXMBERH/155637]
专题	兰州理工大学
作者单位	1.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Lanzhou Univ Technol, Sch Sci, Lanzhou, Peoples R China;
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	SHI, Liang,DING, Ruiqiang. Contributions of tropical-extratropical oceans to the prediction skill of ENSO after 2000[J]. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS,2020,13(4):338-345.
APA	SHI, Liang,&DING, Ruiqiang.(2020).Contributions of tropical-extratropical oceans to the prediction skill of ENSO after 2000.ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS,13(4),338-345.
MLA	SHI, Liang,et al."Contributions of tropical-extratropical oceans to the prediction skill of ENSO after 2000".ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS 13.4(2020):338-345.