Multistep Wind Speed Forecasting Based on a Hybrid Model of VMD and Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network

doi:10.1155/2021/6644668

CORC > 兰州理工大学 > 兰州理工大学

	Multistep Wind Speed Forecasting Based on a Hybrid Model of VMD and Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network
	Zheng, Yuqiao 1; Dong, Bo 1; Liu, Yuhan 1; Tong, Xiaolei 1; Wang, Lei 2
刊名	JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICS
	2021-01-22
卷号	2021 页码:-
ISSN号	2314-4629
DOI	10.1155/2021/6644668
英文摘要	Reducing the costs of wind power requires reasonable wind farm operation and maintenance strategies, and then to develop these strategies, the 24-hour ahead forecasting of wind speed is necessary. However, existing prediction work is mostly limited to 5 hours. This work developed a diurnal forecasting methodology for the regional wind farm according to real-life data of the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system of a wind farm from Jiangxi Province. The methodology used the variational mode decomposition (VMD) to extract wind characteristics, and then, the characteristics were put in the nonlinear autoregressive neural network (Narnet) and long short-term memory network (LSTM) for prediction; the forecast results of VMD-Narnet and VMD-LSTM are compared with the actual wind speed. The comparison results indicate that compared with the LSTM, the Narnet improves the accuracy by 61.90% in 24 hours on wind speed forecasting, and the predicted time horizon was improved by 6.8 hours. This work strongly supports the development of wind farm operation and maintenance strategies and provides a foundation for the reduction of wind power costs.
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
语种	英语
出版者	HINDAWI LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000616175800004
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.lut.edu.cn/handle/2XXMBERH/147326]
专题	兰州理工大学
通讯作者	Zheng, Yuqiao
作者单位	1.Lanzhou Univ Technol, Sch Mech & Elect Engn, Lanzhou 730050, Peoples R China; 2.Chongqing Univ, Coll Automat, Chongqing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zheng, Yuqiao,Dong, Bo,Liu, Yuhan,et al. Multistep Wind Speed Forecasting Based on a Hybrid Model of VMD and Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network[J]. JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICS,2021,2021:-.
APA	Zheng, Yuqiao,Dong, Bo,Liu, Yuhan,Tong, Xiaolei,&Wang, Lei.(2021).Multistep Wind Speed Forecasting Based on a Hybrid Model of VMD and Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network.JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICS,2021,-.
MLA	Zheng, Yuqiao,et al."Multistep Wind Speed Forecasting Based on a Hybrid Model of VMD and Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network".JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICS 2021(2021):-.