Projection of future rainfall for the North China Plain using two statistical downscaling models and its hydrological implications

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	Projection of future rainfall for the North China Plain using two statistical downscaling models and its hydrological implications
	Liu, WenBin(刘文彬) ; Fu, GB ; Liu, CM ; Song, XY ; Ouyang, RL
刊名	STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
	2013
卷号	27 期号:8 页码:1783-1797
关键词	North China Plain Statistical downscaling General circulation model (GCM) NHMM GLIMCLIM Runoff
通讯作者	Liu, WenBin(刘文彬)
英文摘要	This study projected the future rainfall (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) for the North China Plain (NCP) using two stochastic statistical downscaling models, the non-homogeneous hidden Markov model and the generalized linear model for daily climate time series, conditioned by the large-scale atmospheric predictors from six general circulation models for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). The results indicated that the annual total rainfall, the extreme daily rainfall and the maximum length of consecutive wet/dry days would decline, while the number of annual rainfall days would slightly increase (correspondingly rainfall intensity would decrease) in the NCP, in comparison with the base period (1961-2010). Moreover, the summer monsoon rainfall, which accounted for 50-75 % of the total annual rainfalls in NCP, was projected to decrease in the latter half of twenty-first century. The spatial patterns of change showed generally north-south gradients with relatively larger magnitude decrease in the northern NCP and less decrease (or even slightly increase) in the southern NCP. This could result in decline of the annual runoff by -5.5 % (A1B), -3.3 % (A2) and -4.1 % (B1) for 2046-2065 and -5.3 % (A1B), -4.6 % (A2) and -1.9 % (B1) decrease for 2081-2100. These rainfall changes, combined with the warming temperature, could lead to drier catchment soil profiles and further reduce runoff potential, would hence provide valuable references for the water availability and related climate change adaption in the NCP.
收录类别	SCI
资助信息	National Basic Research Program of China 2010CB428406;Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences XDA 05090309
公开日期	2013-11-11
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/27981]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_研究生部
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, WenBin,Fu, GB,Liu, CM,et al. Projection of future rainfall for the North China Plain using two statistical downscaling models and its hydrological implications[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2013,27(8):1783-1797.
APA	Liu, WenBin,Fu, GB,Liu, CM,Song, XY,&Ouyang, RL.(2013).Projection of future rainfall for the North China Plain using two statistical downscaling models and its hydrological implications.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,27(8),1783-1797.
MLA	Liu, WenBin,et al."Projection of future rainfall for the North China Plain using two statistical downscaling models and its hydrological implications".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 27.8(2013):1783-1797.