Daily tourism demand forecasting: the impact of complex seasonal patterns and holiday effects

doi:10.1080/13683500.2022.2060067

	Daily tourism demand forecasting: the impact of complex seasonal patterns and holiday effects
	Liu, Yunhao 2,3; Feng, Gengzhong 3; Chin, Kwai-Sang 2; Sun, Shaolong 3; Wang, Shouyang 1
刊名	CURRENT ISSUES IN TOURISM
	2022-04-16
页码	20
关键词	Tourism demand forecasting daily tourism demand holiday effects seasonal patterns FB Prophet
ISSN号	1368-3500
DOI	10.1080/13683500.2022.2060067
英文摘要	Daily tourism demand forecasting can provide important implications for the tourism industry. However, there exist limitations in applying traditional methods to forecast daily tourism demand because of the complex seasonal patterns and holiday effects. In this study, we introduce FB Prophet and apply it to the forecasting of daily tourism demand in the Jiuzhai Valley National Park and Macao from Mainland China. The decomposition result of FB Prophet shows its ability to handle the influence of seasonal patterns and holiday effects. The forecasting results show that considering seasonal patterns, holiday effects, and other predictors can significantly improve the forecasting performance, and FB Prophet outperforms other methods.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[72101197] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[SK2021007] ; Major Program of National Fund of Philosophy and Social Science of China[20ZD053]
WOS研究方向	Social Sciences - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000782688400001
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/60298]
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Sun, Shaolong
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Adv Design & Syst Engn, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 3.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Management, Xian, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Yunhao,Feng, Gengzhong,Chin, Kwai-Sang,et al. Daily tourism demand forecasting: the impact of complex seasonal patterns and holiday effects[J]. CURRENT ISSUES IN TOURISM,2022:20.
APA	Liu, Yunhao,Feng, Gengzhong,Chin, Kwai-Sang,Sun, Shaolong,&Wang, Shouyang.(2022).Daily tourism demand forecasting: the impact of complex seasonal patterns and holiday effects.CURRENT ISSUES IN TOURISM,20.
MLA	Liu, Yunhao,et al."Daily tourism demand forecasting: the impact of complex seasonal patterns and holiday effects".CURRENT ISSUES IN TOURISM (2022):20.