Interval prediction of oscillating time series based on grey system modelling
Xu GF(徐高飞); Wang XH(王晓辉); Li ZG(李智刚); Zhao Y(赵洋)
刊名International Journal of Modelling, Identification and Control
2019
卷号33期号:2页码:138-151
关键词time series forecasting interval prediction oscillating time series small samples learning spline interpolation grey system modelling underwater vehicle model residual prediction.
ISSN号1746-6172
产权排序1
英文摘要

This paper presents an interval prediction algorithm based on grey system modelling, which is proposed for the forecasting of strong-oscillation time series with small samples. In the proposed algorithm, the upper and lower envelope of an oscillating sequence is obtained through cubic spline interpolation, and distance between the envelope and the fitted sequence derived from grey system model is dynamically expanded according to the oscillation intensity. After that, prediction value of the envelope distance sequence is calculated, and adjusted adaptively based on the new information priority principle. Finally, the interval prediction result is obtained. To verify the performance of the algorithm, five application cases from different fields were adopted. Compared with five representative algorithms in the recently related field, the proposed algorithm has distinct advantages in the prediction of small-sample strong-oscillation time series. © 2019 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

语种英语
内容类型期刊论文
源URL[http://ir.sia.cn/handle/173321/26218]  
专题沈阳自动化研究所_水下机器人研究室
通讯作者Zhao Y(赵洋)
作者单位State Key Laboratory of Robotics, Shenyang Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Xu GF,Wang XH,Li ZG,et al. Interval prediction of oscillating time series based on grey system modelling[J]. International Journal of Modelling, Identification and Control,2019,33(2):138-151.
APA Xu GF,Wang XH,Li ZG,&Zhao Y.(2019).Interval prediction of oscillating time series based on grey system modelling.International Journal of Modelling, Identification and Control,33(2),138-151.
MLA Xu GF,et al."Interval prediction of oscillating time series based on grey system modelling".International Journal of Modelling, Identification and Control 33.2(2019):138-151.
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