Integrating a mixed-cell cellular automata model and Bayesian belief network for ecosystem services optimization to guide ecological restoration and conservation | |
Zhou, Shuang2,3; Peng, Li1 | |
刊名 | LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT |
2022-02-08 | |
页码 | 17 |
关键词 | Bayesian belief network ecological restoration and conservation land use pattern scenario simulation uncertainty |
ISSN号 | 1085-3278 |
DOI | 10.1002/ldr.4218 |
英文摘要 | An ecosystem is a complex system with a large number of dynamic variables, which poses challenges to the optimization of ecosystem services. However, traditional ecosystem services optimization methods do not take into account the complexity and uncertainty of variables. To address this complexity and uncertainty, we propose an innovative approach using a mixed-cell cellular automata (MCCA) model and a Bayesian belief network (BBN) model for ecosystem service optimization. This approach was applied to the southern region of Sichuan Province, China, using an existing dataset to simulate land use patterns and predict ecosystem services in 2035 under different development scenarios. To achieve ecological restoration and conservation, we also determined the key factor combinations and key ecological regions at various ecosystem service levels. Results showed that ecological protection scenario design has important significance as a reference for maintaining and ameliorating regional ecosystem services and functions. We also identified that the highest level of ecosystem services was mainly located in the areas with the highest net primary productivity (NPP), the highest slope, the highest forestland area, and low ET. According to these findings, some suggestions for ecological restoration and conservation in key regions were put forward. This approach fully considers the uncertainty of factors; therefore, it can be used as an effective tool for designing ecosystem management strategies. |
资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771194] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42071222] |
WOS关键词 | LAND-USE CHANGES ; HABITAT QUALITY ; TRADE-OFFS ; LAKE BASIN ; AREAS ; SIMULATION ; IMPACT ; CHINA ; RISK |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Agriculture |
语种 | 英语 |
出版者 | WILEY |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000752655400001 |
资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
内容类型 | 期刊论文 |
源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/56435] |
专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山区发展研究中心 |
通讯作者 | Peng, Li |
作者单位 | 1.Sichuan Normal Univ, Coll Geog & Resources, Chengdu 610101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhou, Shuang,Peng, Li. Integrating a mixed-cell cellular automata model and Bayesian belief network for ecosystem services optimization to guide ecological restoration and conservation[J]. LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT,2022:17. |
APA | Zhou, Shuang,&Peng, Li.(2022).Integrating a mixed-cell cellular automata model and Bayesian belief network for ecosystem services optimization to guide ecological restoration and conservation.LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT,17. |
MLA | Zhou, Shuang,et al."Integrating a mixed-cell cellular automata model and Bayesian belief network for ecosystem services optimization to guide ecological restoration and conservation".LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT (2022):17. |
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