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Fine-grained Solar Flare Forecasting Based on the Hybrid Convolutional Neural Networks
Deng, Zheng1,2,3; Wang, Feng1,3; Deng, Hui1,3; Tan, Lei.3; Deng LH(邓林华)4; Feng, Song2
刊名ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
2021-12
卷号922期号:2
ISSN号0004-637X
DOI10.3847/1538-4357/ac2b2b
产权排序第4完成单位
文献子类Article
英文摘要

Improving the performance of solar flare forecasting is a hot topic in the solar physics research field. Deep learning has been considered a promising approach to perform solar flare forecasting in recent years. We first used the generative adversarial networks (GAN) technique augmenting sample data to balance samples with different flare classes. We then proposed a hybrid convolutional neural network (CNN) model (M) for forecasting flare eruption in a solar cycle. Based on this model, we further investigated the effects of the rising and declining phases for flare forecasting. Two CNN models, i.e., M (rp) and M (dp), were presented to forecast solar flare eruptions in the rising phase and declining phase of solar cycle 24, respectively. A series of testing results proved the following. (1) Sample balance is critical for the stability of the CNN model. The augmented data generated by GAN effectively improved the stability of the forecast model. (2) For C-class, M-class, and X-class flare forecasting using Solar Dynamics Observatory line-of-sight magnetograms, the means of the true skill statistics (TSS) scores of M are 0.646, 0.653, and 0.762, which improved by 20.1%, 22.3%, and 38.0% compared with previous studies. (3) It is valuable to separately model the flare forecasts in the rising and declining phases of a solar cycle. Compared with model M, the means of the TSS scores for No-flare, C-class, M-class, and X-class flare forecasting of the M (rp) improved by 5.9%, 9.4%, 17.9%, and 13.1%, and those of the M (dp) improved by 1.5%, 2.6%, 11.5%, and 12.2%.

学科主题天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系
URL标识查看原文
出版地TEMPLE CIRCUS, TEMPLE WAY, BRISTOL BS1 6BE, ENGLAND
资助项目National SKA Program of China[2020SKA0110300] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[U1831204] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[U1931141] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)Chinese Academy of Sciences[U1831204] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)Chinese Academy of Sciences[U1931141] ; Funds for International Cooperation and Exchange of the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11961141001] ; Astronomical Big Data Joint Research Center ; Chinese Academy of SciencesChinese Academy of Sciences ; Alibaba Cloud
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics
语种英语
出版者IOP Publishing Ltd
WOS记录号WOS:000725852900001
资助机构National SKA Program of China[2020SKA0110300] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[U1831204, U1931141] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)Chinese Academy of Sciences[U1831204, U1931141] ; Funds for International Cooperation and Exchange of the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11961141001] ; Astronomical Big Data Joint Research Center ; Chinese Academy of SciencesChinese Academy of Sciences ; Alibaba Cloud
内容类型期刊论文
版本出版稿
源URL[http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/24706]  
专题云南天文台_抚仙湖太阳观测站
通讯作者Wang, Feng
作者单位1.Great Bay Center, National Astronomical Data Center, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510006, People's Republic of China;
2.Faculty of Information Engineering and Automation, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, People's Republic of China;
3.Center For Astrophysics, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, People's Republic of China; fengwang@gzhu.edu.cn, denghui@gzhu.edu.cn;
4.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650216, People's Republic of China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Deng, Zheng,Wang, Feng,Deng, Hui,et al. Fine-grained Solar Flare Forecasting Based on the Hybrid Convolutional Neural Networks[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,2021,922(2).
APA Deng, Zheng,Wang, Feng,Deng, Hui,Tan, Lei.,Deng LH,&Feng, Song.(2021).Fine-grained Solar Flare Forecasting Based on the Hybrid Convolutional Neural Networks.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,922(2).
MLA Deng, Zheng,et al."Fine-grained Solar Flare Forecasting Based on the Hybrid Convolutional Neural Networks".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 922.2(2021).
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