Multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological changes in central Karakoram, Pakistan

doi:10.1007/s11629-021-6748-9

CORC > 成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室

	Multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological changes in central Karakoram, Pakistan
	Hassan, Javed 2,3,4; Chen Xiao-qing 2,3,4; Kayastha, Rijan Bhakta 1,4; Nie Yong 2,4
刊名	JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
	2021-08-01
卷号	18 期号:8 页码:1995-2011
关键词	Modified Positive Degree Day Model (MPDDM) Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM) Glacio-hydrological Modelling Climatic Variation Snow and ice contributions
ISSN号	1672-6316
DOI	10.1007/s11629-021-6748-9
英文摘要	The multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological regimes can enhance our understanding of glacier response to climate change. This improved knowledge can uplift our computing abilities to estimate the contributing components of the river discharge. This study examined and compared the hydrological responses in the glacier-dominated Shigar River basin (SRB) under various climatic scenarios using a semi-distributed Modified Positive Degree Day Model (MPDDM) and a distributed Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM). Both glacio-hydrological models were calibrated and validated against the observed hydro-meteorological data from 1988-1992 and 1993-1997. Temperature and precipitation data from Shigar and Skardu meteorological stations were used along with field estimated degree-day factor, temperature, and precipitation gradients. The results from both models indicate that the snow and ice melt are vital contributors to sustain river flow in the catchment. However, MPDDM estimated 68% of rain and baseflow contribution to annual river runoff despite low precipitation during the summer monsoon, while GDM estimated 14% rain and baseflow contribution. Likewise, MPDDM calculated 32%, and GDM generated 86% of the annual river runoff from snow and ice melt. MPDDM simulated river discharge with 0.86 and 0.78 NSE for calibration and validation, respectively. Similarly, GDM simulated river discharge with improved accuracy of 0.87 for calibration and 0.84 NSE for the validation period. The snow and ice melt is significant in sustaining river flow in the SRB, and substantial changes in melt characteristics of snow and ice are expected to have severe consequences on seasonal water availability. Based on the sensitivity analysis, both models' outputs are highly sensitive to the variation in temperature. Furthermore, compared to MPDDM, GDM simulated considerable variation in the river discharge in climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and 8.5, mainly due to the higher sensitivity of GDM model outputs to temperature change. The integration of an updated melt module and two reservoir baseflow module in GDM is anticipated to advance the representation of hydrological components, unlike one reservoir baseflow module used separately in MPDDM. The restructured melt and baseflow modules in GDM have fundamentally enriched our perception of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the catchment.
WOS关键词	FUTURE HYDROLOGICAL REGIMES ; RISING RIVER FLOWS ; UPPER INDUS BASIN ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; BALTORO GLACIER ; MODEL ; WATER ; BALANCE ; RUNOFF ; MELT
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	SCIENCE PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000681747700002
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/56286]
专题	成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室成都山地灾害与环境研究所_数字山地与遥感应用中心
通讯作者	Chen Xiao-qing
作者单位	1.Kathmandu Univ, Sch Sci, Dept Environm Sci & Engn, Himalayan Cryosphere Climate & Disaster Res Ctr H, Kavrepalanchowk 45200, Nepal 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.China Pakistan Joint Res Ctr Earth Sci, CAS HEC, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hassan, Javed,Chen Xiao-qing,Kayastha, Rijan Bhakta,et al. Multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological changes in central Karakoram, Pakistan[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2021,18(8):1995-2011.
APA	Hassan, Javed,Chen Xiao-qing,Kayastha, Rijan Bhakta,&Nie Yong.(2021).Multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological changes in central Karakoram, Pakistan.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,18(8),1995-2011.
MLA	Hassan, Javed,et al."Multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological changes in central Karakoram, Pakistan".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 18.8(2021):1995-2011.