Maxent modeling for predicting impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Thuja sutchuenensis Franch., an extremely endangered conifer from southwestern China

doi:10.1021/acs.jproteome.6b01016

CORC > 植物研究所 > 中国科学院植物研究所 > 系统与进化植物学国家重点实验室

	Maxent modeling for predicting impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Thuja sutchuenensis Franch., an extremely endangered conifer from southwestern China
	Qin, Aili 2; Liu, Bo 1,2; Guo, Quanshui ; Bussmann, Rainer W.; Ma, Fanqiang ; Jian, Zunji 4; Xu, Gexi 4; Pei, Shunxiang 4
刊名	GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION
	2017
卷号	10 页码:139-146
关键词	Thuja sutchuenensis Maxent Jackknife Climate change Species distribution modeling
ISSN号	2351-9894
DOI	10.1021/acs.jproteome.6b01016
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	Objectives Detailed and reliable information about the spatial distribution of species provides important information for species conservation management, especially in the case of rare species of conservation interest. We aimed to study the consequences of climate change on geographical distributions of the tertiary rare tree species Thuja sutchuenensis Franch. (Cupressaceae) to provide reference for conservation management of this species, including priority area selection for introduction and cultivation of the species. We expect that this approach could be promising in predicting the potential distribution of other rare tree species, and as such can be an effective tool in rare tree species restoration and conservation planning, especially species with narrow distribution or raw presence-only occurrence data. Methods 107 records covering the whole distribution range of T. sutchuenensis in the Daba Mountains were obtained during a 3-year field survey. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climate background. Results The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value of 0.998, which is higher than 0.5 of a null model; The location of the potential distribution for the last interglacial period is in southeastern China, with the largest optimal habitat area being only 1666 km(2). In other periods, the central location of the potential distribution is accordant with the real present distribution, but the model's predicted optimal habitat area is outside the current distribution. Conclusions Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where T. sutchuenensis may already exist, but has not yet been detected; the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to; the priority selection area for introduction and cultivation and the conservation management of such rare tree species. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
学科主题	Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
出版地	AMSTERDAM
WOS关键词	HABITAT FRAGMENTATION ; SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; SAMPLE-SIZE ; CONSERVATION ; PERFORMANCE ; DISPERSAL ; LANDSCAPE ; PLANT ; L.
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000401044600012
资助机构	Special fund for basic scientific research business of central public research institutes [CAFYBB2014QB031, CAFRIFEEP2015B07] ; National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [31400474, 31400182] ; Youth Academic Leadership Program in Minzu University of China [2017MDYL32]
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/22018]
专题	系统与进化植物学国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Forestry, Res Inst Forestry Ecol Environm & Protect, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Minzu Univ China, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Bussmann, Rainer W.] Missouri Bot Garden, William L Brown Ctr, St Louis, MO USA 5.Chinese Acad Forestry, Expt Ctr Forestry North China, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qin, Aili,Liu, Bo,Guo, Quanshui,et al. Maxent modeling for predicting impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Thuja sutchuenensis Franch., an extremely endangered conifer from southwestern China[J]. GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION,2017,10:139-146.
APA	Qin, Aili.,Liu, Bo.,Guo, Quanshui.,Bussmann, Rainer W..,Ma, Fanqiang.,...&Pei, Shunxiang.(2017).Maxent modeling for predicting impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Thuja sutchuenensis Franch., an extremely endangered conifer from southwestern China.GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION,10,139-146.
MLA	Qin, Aili,et al."Maxent modeling for predicting impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Thuja sutchuenensis Franch., an extremely endangered conifer from southwestern China".GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION 10(2017):139-146.