The hit of the novel coronavirus outbreak to China's economy

doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101606

	The hit of the novel coronavirus outbreak to China's economy
	Duan, Hongbo 4; Bao, Qin 2,3; Tian, Kailan 2,3; Wang, Shouyang 2,3,4; Yang, Cuihong 2,3,4; Cai, Zongwu 1
刊名	CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW
	2021-06-01
卷号	67 页码:17
关键词	COVID-19 Economic impact assessment General equilibrium modeling China
ISSN号	1043-951X
DOI	10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101606
英文摘要	Broke out at the end of 2019, the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has been spreading throughout the world, leading to more than 87 million confirmed infections and 1.88 million fatalities. Motivated by this, we evaluate the economic impacts of COVID-19 outbreak on both national and industrial levels by employing quarterly computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Our results reveal that the epidemic may lower China's economic growth in 2020 by 3.5%, versus 4.4% for final consumption (relative to baseline). The service industry suffers the most from the outbreak, and the Accommodation-Food-Beverage service, Wholesale-Retail Trade, and Transport-Storage-Post are identified as the most vulnerable sectors, with the negative impact on output reaching as high as 14.6%. When moving to 2021, the hit to economy shrinks to 2% (1.2-2.7%), with industry estimated to be the most affected sector instead. This study indicates that implementing effective measures for preventing and controlling the epidemic and policies for post-disease economic recovery play critical role in curbing the potential economic damage.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874177] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71631004] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72042019] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72022019] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71903186] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71673269] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72073127]
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
WOS记录号	WOS:000652855600015
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/58722]
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Cai, Zongwu
作者单位	1.Univ Kansas, Dept Econ, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Duan, Hongbo,Bao, Qin,Tian, Kailan,et al. The hit of the novel coronavirus outbreak to China's economy[J]. CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW,2021,67:17.
APA	Duan, Hongbo,Bao, Qin,Tian, Kailan,Wang, Shouyang,Yang, Cuihong,&Cai, Zongwu.(2021).The hit of the novel coronavirus outbreak to China's economy.CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW,67,17.
MLA	Duan, Hongbo,et al."The hit of the novel coronavirus outbreak to China's economy".CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW 67(2021):17.