Vehicle Motion Prediction at Intersections Based on the Turning Intention and Prior Trajectories Model

doi:10.1109/JAS.2021.1003952

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	Vehicle Motion Prediction at Intersections Based on the Turning Intention and Prior Trajectories Model
	Ting Zhang; Wenjie Song; Mengyin Fu; Yi Yang; Meiling Wang
刊名	IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica
	2021
卷号	8 期号:10 页码:1657-1666
关键词	Autonomous vehicle intersection motion prediction prior trajectories model turning intention
ISSN号	2329-9266
DOI	10.1109/JAS.2021.1003952
英文摘要	Intersections are quite important and complex traffic scenarios, where the future motion of surrounding vehicles is an indispensable reference factor for the decision-making or path planning of autonomous vehicles. Considering that the motion trajectory of a vehicle at an intersection partly obeys the statistical law of historical data once its driving intention is determined, this paper proposes a long short-term memory based (LSTM-based) framework that combines intention prediction and trajectory prediction together. First, we build an intersection prior trajectories model (IPTM) by clustering and statistically analyzing a large number of prior traffic flow trajectories. The prior trajectories model with fitted probabilistic density is used to approximate the distribution of the predicted trajectory, and also serves as a reference for credibility evaluation. Second, we conduct the intention prediction through another LSTM model and regard it as a crucial cue for a trajectory forecast at the early stage. Furthermore, the predicted intention is also a key that is associated with the prior trajectories model. The proposed framework is validated on two publically released datasets, next generation simulation (NGSIM) and INTERACTION. Compared with other prediction methods, our framework is able to sample a trajectory from the estimated distribution, with its accuracy improved by about 20%. Finally, the credibility evaluation, which is based on the prior trajectories model, makes the framework more practical in the real-world applications.
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/45379]
专题	自动化研究所_学术期刊_IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ting Zhang,Wenjie Song,Mengyin Fu,et al. Vehicle Motion Prediction at Intersections Based on the Turning Intention and Prior Trajectories Model[J]. IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica,2021,8(10):1657-1666.
APA	Ting Zhang,Wenjie Song,Mengyin Fu,Yi Yang,&Meiling Wang.(2021).Vehicle Motion Prediction at Intersections Based on the Turning Intention and Prior Trajectories Model.IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica,8(10),1657-1666.
MLA	Ting Zhang,et al."Vehicle Motion Prediction at Intersections Based on the Turning Intention and Prior Trajectories Model".IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica 8.10(2021):1657-1666.