Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study

doi:10.1002/joc.7302

CORC > 海洋研究所 > 中国科学院海洋研究所 > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study
	Spinoni, Jonathan 2; Barbosa, Paulo 2; Bucchignani, Edoardo 3,29; Cassano, John 4; Cavazos, Tereza 5; Cescatti, Alessandro 2; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg 6,7,28; Christensen, Ole Bossing 7; Coppola, Erika 8; Evans, Jason 9
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
	2021-08-04
页码	28
关键词	climate projections CORDEX drought global warming levels land-use population socioeconomic scenarios
ISSN号	0899-8418
DOI	10.1002/joc.7302
通讯作者	Spinoni, Jonathan(jonathan.spinoni@ec.europa.eu)
英文摘要	Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population and land-use (forests, croplands, pastures) exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset, and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981-2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five SSPs (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs, from 1.5 to 4 degrees C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the combination SSP3-GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (vs. 1981-2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 (fossil-fuelled development) at GWL 4 degrees C, approximately 2 center dot 10(6) km(2) of forests and croplands (respectively, 6 and 11%) and 1.5 center dot 10(6) km(2) of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI, this extent will rise to 17 center dot 10(6) km(2) of forests (49%), 6 center dot 10(6) km(2) of pastures (78%), and 12 center dot 10(6) km(2) of croplands (67%), with mid-latitudes being the most affected areas. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	WILEY
WOS记录号	WOS:000681018300001
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/176010]
专题	海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Spinoni, Jonathan
作者单位	1.Inst Coastal Res, Helmholtz Zent Geesthacht HZG, Hamburg, Germany 2.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr JRC, Vianrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra, Italy 3.Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC, REMHI Div, Caserta, Italy 4.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci CIRES, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Boulder, CO USA 5.Ctr Invest Cient Educ Super Ensenada CICESE, Baja California, Mexico 6.Univ Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Inst NBI, Copenhagen, Denmark 7.Danish Meteorol Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark 8.Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP, Trieste, Italy 9.Univ New South Wales, Fac Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia 10.Cyprus Inst CyI, Climate & Atmosphere Res Ctr CARE C, Nicosia, Cyprus
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Spinoni, Jonathan,Barbosa, Paulo,Bucchignani, Edoardo,et al. Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2021:28.
APA	Spinoni, Jonathan.,Barbosa, Paulo.,Bucchignani, Edoardo.,Cassano, John.,Cavazos, Tereza.,...&Dosio, Alessandro.(2021).Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,28.
MLA	Spinoni, Jonathan,et al."Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2021):28.