Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China

doi:10.1111/jiec.13182

	Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China
	Liu, Qiance 1,2,3; Liu, Litao 3; Liu, Xiaojie 3; Li, Shenggong 1,3; Liu, Gang 2
刊名	JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY
	2021-08-16
页码	13
关键词	building stock China construction sector dynamic material flow analysis industrial ecology labor demand forecasting
ISSN号	1088-1980
DOI	10.1111/jiec.13182
通讯作者	Liu, Gang(gli@igt.sdu.dk)
英文摘要	The rapid urbanization and building boom in China in the past decades provided not only massive residential and nonresidential floor space, but also millions of jobs especially for migrants from rural areas. However, such high-speed growth of building stocks is not expected to continue forever and its dynamics, especially declining, may affect the job market of the construction sector and further China's social stability. Here, we extended a dynamic material flow analysis (dMFA) model that characterized the building stocks and flows to forecast the province-level direct labor demand in construction, installation, and decoration in mainland China from 1950 to 2050. We show that as China's per capita building stocks start to saturate in the next decades, building inflow will decrease with a speed of 2.6-2.7 billion m(2)/year, corresponding to a decrease of direct construction employment by 2-3 million by 2050. The flow of migrant workers from Central South and Southwestern China to construction in the Southeastern coast of China will remain until 2050. Our results exemplify the usefulness of dMFA for labor demand forecasting and call for proper governmental plans and policies in advance to train migrant workers for new labor markets and potential re-employment in face of the construction bubble and bust.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71991484] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71991480] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72042020] ; Independent Research Fund Denmark (iBuildGreen)
WOS关键词	MATERIAL FLOW-ANALYSIS ; MANPOWER DEMAND ; DEMOLITION ; WASTE ; MODEL
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	WILEY
WOS记录号	WOS:000685485000001
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Independent Research Fund Denmark (iBuildGreen)
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/164599]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Liu, Gang
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sino Danish Coll, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Southern Denmark, Dept Green Technol, SDU Life Cycle Engn, DK-5230 Odense, Denmark 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Qiance,Liu, Litao,Liu, Xiaojie,et al. Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China[J]. JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY,2021:13.
APA	Liu, Qiance,Liu, Litao,Liu, Xiaojie,Li, Shenggong,&Liu, Gang.(2021).Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China.JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY,13.
MLA	Liu, Qiance,et al."Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China".JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY (2021):13.