Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Nino prediction: implication for targeted observation

doi:10.1007/s00343-019-9062-4

CORC > 海洋研究所 > 中国科学院海洋研究所 > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Nino prediction: implication for targeted observation
	Zhou Qian 1,2; Duan Wansuo 3,4; Hu Junya 5
刊名	JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY
	2020-11-01
卷号	38 期号:6 页码:1602-1615
关键词	tropical Indian Ocean El Niñ o prediction sensitive area targeted observation
ISSN号	2096-5508
DOI	10.1007/s00343-019-9062-4
通讯作者	Duan Wansuo(duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Based on initial errors of sea temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean that are most likely to induce spring predictability barrier (SPB) for the El Nino prediction, the sensitive area of sea temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Nino prediction starting from January is identified using the CESM1.0.3 (Community Earth System Model), a fully coupled global climate model. The sensitive area locates mainly in the subsurface of eastern Indian Ocean. The effectiveness of applying targeted observation in the sensitive area is also evaluated in an attempt to improve the El Nino prediction skill. The results of sensitivity experiments indicate that if initial errors exist only in the tropical Indian Ocean, applying targeted observation in the sensitive area in the Indian Ocean can significantly improve the El Nino prediction. In particular, for SPB-related El Nino events, when initial errors of sea temperature exist both in the tropical Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, which is much closer to the realistic predictions, if targeted observations are conducted in the sensitive area of tropical Pacific, the prediction skills of SPB-related El Nino events can be improved by 20.3% in general. Moreover, if targeted observations are conducted in the sensitive area of tropical Indian Ocean in addition, the improvement of prediction skill can be increased by 25.2%. Considering the volume of sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean is about 1/3 of that in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the prediction skill improvement per cubic kilometer in the sensitive area of tropical Indian Ocean is competitive to that of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Additional to the sensitive area of the tropical Pacific Ocean, sensitive area of the tropical Indian Ocean is also a very effective and cost-saving area for the application of targeted observations to improve El Nino forecast skills.
WOS研究方向	Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Oceanography
语种	英语
出版者	SCIENCE PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000601549400002
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/170066]
专题	海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Duan Wansuo
作者单位	1.Minist Nat Resources, Natl Marine Environm Forecasting Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 2.Natl Marine Environm Forecasting Ctr, Key Lab Res Marine Hazards Forecasting, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou Qian,Duan Wansuo,Hu Junya. Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Nino prediction: implication for targeted observation[J]. JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY,2020,38(6):1602-1615.
APA	Zhou Qian,Duan Wansuo,&Hu Junya.(2020).Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Nino prediction: implication for targeted observation.JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY,38(6),1602-1615.
MLA	Zhou Qian,et al."Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Nino prediction: implication for targeted observation".JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY 38.6(2020):1602-1615.