Predictability and error growth dynamics of the Kuroshio Extension state transition process in an eddy-resolving regional ocean model

doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2020.101659

CORC > 海洋研究所 > 中国科学院海洋研究所 > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Predictability and error growth dynamics of the Kuroshio Extension state transition process in an eddy-resolving regional ocean model
	Geng, Yu 2,3; Wang, Qiang 4; Mu, Mu 2,5; Zhang, Kun 1,2
刊名	OCEAN MODELLING
	2020-09-01
卷号	153 页码:13
关键词	Kuroshio Extension Predictability Initial error
ISSN号	1463-5003
DOI	10.1016/j.ocemod.2020.101659
通讯作者	Wang, Qiang(wangq@hhu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Based on an eddy-resolving Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method, we set up a nonlinear optimization system to investigate the effects of the fastest -growing initial errors on the prediction of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) transition process from the stable to the unstable state. The results reveal that the larger values of the CNOP-type fastest-growing initial errors are mainly located upstream of the KE over the upper 500 m. Furthermore, the dynamic mechanism of the error growth is explored in terms of error movement, maintenance and development during the KE transition period. The results indicate that the errors are transported eastward from the south of Japan to the KE's first quasi-stationary meander by linear advection. The nonlinear advection slows down the moving speed of these errors, leading to their long-term existence in the first quasi-stationary meander of the KE. In this situation, errors have enough time to absorb energy from the background field continuously through barotropic energy conversion. Ultimately, errors grow rapidly and further induce the overestimation of the KE strength.
资助项目	Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology[QNLM2016ORP0107] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[B200201011] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41576015] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41806013] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41906003] ; NSFC Innovative Group[41421005] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20060502] ; National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction[GASI-IPOVAI-06] ; NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers[U1606402] ; High Performance Computing Center at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Oceanography
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000564119200005
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/168534]
专题	海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Wang, Qiang
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Mega Sci, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Hohai Univ, Coll Oceanog, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China 5.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Geng, Yu,Wang, Qiang,Mu, Mu,et al. Predictability and error growth dynamics of the Kuroshio Extension state transition process in an eddy-resolving regional ocean model[J]. OCEAN MODELLING,2020,153:13.
APA	Geng, Yu,Wang, Qiang,Mu, Mu,&Zhang, Kun.(2020).Predictability and error growth dynamics of the Kuroshio Extension state transition process in an eddy-resolving regional ocean model.OCEAN MODELLING,153,13.
MLA	Geng, Yu,et al."Predictability and error growth dynamics of the Kuroshio Extension state transition process in an eddy-resolving regional ocean model".OCEAN MODELLING 153(2020):13.