ECOLOGICAL RATIONALITY: FAST-AND-FRUGAL HEURISTICS FOR MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Luan, Shenghua1; Reb, Jochen2; Gigerenzer, Gerd3
刊名ACADEMY OF MANAGEMENT JOURNAL
2019-12-01
卷号62期号:6页码:1735-1759
ISSN号0001-4273
DOI10.5465/amj.2018.0172
产权排序1
文献子类article
英文摘要

Heuristics are often viewed as inferior to "rational" strategies that exhaustively search and process information. Introducing the theoretical perspective of ecological rationality, we challenge this view and argue that, under conditions of uncertainty common to managerial decision making, managers can actually make better decisions using fast-and-frugal heuristics. Within the context of personnel selection, we show that a heuristic called D-inference can more accurately predict which of two job applicants would perform better in the future than can logistic regression, a prototypical rational strategy. Using data from 236 applicants at an airline company, we demonstrate, in Study 1, that, despite searching less than half of the cues, D-inference leads to more accurate selection decisions than logistic regression. After this existence proof, we examine, in Study 2, the ecological conditions under which the heuristic predicts more accurately than logistic regression using 1,728 simulated task environments. Finally, in Study 3, we show in an experiment that participants adapted their strategies to the characteristics of a task-and increasingly so the greater their previous experience in selection decisions. The aim of this article is to propose ecological rationality as an alternative to current views about the nature of heuristics in managerial decisions.

资助项目CAS grant[Y8CX153006]
WOS关键词HOMO HEURISTICUS ; ADVERSE IMPACT ; STRATEGIES ; SELECTION ; MODELS ; PERFORMANCE ; PREDICTORS ; LEARN ; PREFERENCE ; INTUITION
WOS研究方向Business & Economics
语种英语
出版者ACAD MANAGEMENT
WOS记录号WOS:000510826700005
资助机构CAS Pioneer 100, Category A grant
内容类型期刊论文
源URL[http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/30879]  
专题心理研究所_社会与工程心理学研究室
通讯作者Luan, Shenghua
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Singapore Management Univ, Org Behav & Human Resources, Lee Kong Chian Sch Business, Singapore, Singapore
3.Max Planck Inst Human Dev, Harding Ctr Risk Literacy, Berlin, Germany
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Luan, Shenghua,Reb, Jochen,Gigerenzer, Gerd. ECOLOGICAL RATIONALITY: FAST-AND-FRUGAL HEURISTICS FOR MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY[J]. ACADEMY OF MANAGEMENT JOURNAL,2019,62(6):1735-1759.
APA Luan, Shenghua,Reb, Jochen,&Gigerenzer, Gerd.(2019).ECOLOGICAL RATIONALITY: FAST-AND-FRUGAL HEURISTICS FOR MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY.ACADEMY OF MANAGEMENT JOURNAL,62(6),1735-1759.
MLA Luan, Shenghua,et al."ECOLOGICAL RATIONALITY: FAST-AND-FRUGAL HEURISTICS FOR MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY".ACADEMY OF MANAGEMENT JOURNAL 62.6(2019):1735-1759.
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