ECOLOGICAL RATIONALITY: FAST-AND-FRUGAL HEURISTICS FOR MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY | |
Luan, Shenghua1; Reb, Jochen2; Gigerenzer, Gerd3 | |
刊名 | ACADEMY OF MANAGEMENT JOURNAL |
2019-12-01 | |
卷号 | 62期号:6页码:1735-1759 |
ISSN号 | 0001-4273 |
DOI | 10.5465/amj.2018.0172 |
产权排序 | 1 |
文献子类 | article |
英文摘要 | Heuristics are often viewed as inferior to "rational" strategies that exhaustively search and process information. Introducing the theoretical perspective of ecological rationality, we challenge this view and argue that, under conditions of uncertainty common to managerial decision making, managers can actually make better decisions using fast-and-frugal heuristics. Within the context of personnel selection, we show that a heuristic called D-inference can more accurately predict which of two job applicants would perform better in the future than can logistic regression, a prototypical rational strategy. Using data from 236 applicants at an airline company, we demonstrate, in Study 1, that, despite searching less than half of the cues, D-inference leads to more accurate selection decisions than logistic regression. After this existence proof, we examine, in Study 2, the ecological conditions under which the heuristic predicts more accurately than logistic regression using 1,728 simulated task environments. Finally, in Study 3, we show in an experiment that participants adapted their strategies to the characteristics of a task-and increasingly so the greater their previous experience in selection decisions. The aim of this article is to propose ecological rationality as an alternative to current views about the nature of heuristics in managerial decisions. |
资助项目 | CAS grant[Y8CX153006] |
WOS关键词 | HOMO HEURISTICUS ; ADVERSE IMPACT ; STRATEGIES ; SELECTION ; MODELS ; PERFORMANCE ; PREDICTORS ; LEARN ; PREFERENCE ; INTUITION |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics |
语种 | 英语 |
出版者 | ACAD MANAGEMENT |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000510826700005 |
资助机构 | CAS Pioneer 100, Category A grant |
内容类型 | 期刊论文 |
源URL | [http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/30879] |
专题 | 心理研究所_社会与工程心理学研究室 |
通讯作者 | Luan, Shenghua |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Singapore Management Univ, Org Behav & Human Resources, Lee Kong Chian Sch Business, Singapore, Singapore 3.Max Planck Inst Human Dev, Harding Ctr Risk Literacy, Berlin, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Luan, Shenghua,Reb, Jochen,Gigerenzer, Gerd. ECOLOGICAL RATIONALITY: FAST-AND-FRUGAL HEURISTICS FOR MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY[J]. ACADEMY OF MANAGEMENT JOURNAL,2019,62(6):1735-1759. |
APA | Luan, Shenghua,Reb, Jochen,&Gigerenzer, Gerd.(2019).ECOLOGICAL RATIONALITY: FAST-AND-FRUGAL HEURISTICS FOR MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY.ACADEMY OF MANAGEMENT JOURNAL,62(6),1735-1759. |
MLA | Luan, Shenghua,et al."ECOLOGICAL RATIONALITY: FAST-AND-FRUGAL HEURISTICS FOR MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY".ACADEMY OF MANAGEMENT JOURNAL 62.6(2019):1735-1759. |
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