Permafrost sensitivity to global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C in the Northern Hemisphere

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abd6a8

	Permafrost sensitivity to global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C in the Northern Hemisphere
	Liu, Lei 1,2,3; Zhao, Dongsheng 1; Wei, Junqi 4; Zhuang, Qianlai 3; Gao, Xuan 1,2; Zhu, Yu 1,2; Zhang, Jiacheng 1,2; Guo, Caiyun 1,2; Zheng, Du 1,2
刊名	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
	2021-03-01
卷号	16 期号:3 页码:14
关键词	permafrost active layer climate warming temperature sensitivity spatial and temporal variation
ISSN号	1748-9326
DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/abd6a8
通讯作者	Zhao, Dongsheng(zhaods@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Permafrost degradation induced by climate warming is widely observed in the Northern Hemisphere. However, changes in permafrost sensitivity to climate warming (PSCW) in the future remains unclear. This study examined the changes in permafrost distribution in the Northern Hemisphere under global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, and then characterized the spatial and temporal characteristics of PSCW. Global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C would result in 17.8 +/- 5.3% and 28.3 +/- 7.2% degradation of permafrost area under the climate scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, respectively, and 18.7 +/- 4.6% and 28.1 +/- 7.2% under the RCP 8.5, respectively. Permafrost tends to be more sensitive to climate change under the RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5. PSCW shows small temporal variations in the 21st century under both RCPs, indicating a relatively stable sensitivity to warming on a hemisphere scale. However, PSCW varies greatly among regions, with high values at low latitudes and low values towards high latitudes. Air temperature is a major cause for the spatial heterogeneity of PSCW, explaining 66% of its variations. Permafrost under a warmer climate scenario tends to be more sensitive to the warming. Reducing snow depth and rising air temperature collectively enhances the permafrost sensitivity. Increasing in soil water content, by contrast, reduces the effect of warming. Permafrost in the south of the Northern Hemisphere is most vulnerable to climate warming. Our study highlights that permafrost in the region will respond differently under different warming scenarios across space (e.g. north vs south) and time (e.g. summer vs winter) in this century.
资助项目	projects of the 'Strategic Priority Research Program' of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20020202] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571193] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41530749] ; China Scholarship Council
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	IOP PUBLISHING LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000622305200001
资助机构	projects of the 'Strategic Priority Research Program' of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China Scholarship Council
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/160537]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhao, Dongsheng
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Purdue Univ, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA 4.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Lei,Zhao, Dongsheng,Wei, Junqi,et al. Permafrost sensitivity to global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C in the Northern Hemisphere[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2021,16(3):14.
APA	Liu, Lei.,Zhao, Dongsheng.,Wei, Junqi.,Zhuang, Qianlai.,Gao, Xuan.,...&Zheng, Du.(2021).Permafrost sensitivity to global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C in the Northern Hemisphere.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,16(3),14.
MLA	Liu, Lei,et al."Permafrost sensitivity to global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C in the Northern Hemisphere".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 16.3(2021):14.