Exploring future copper demand, recycling and associated greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-28

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102093

	Exploring future copper demand, recycling and associated greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-28
	Ciacci, L.2; Fishman, T.3; Elshkaki, A.1,4; Graedel, T. E.1; Vassura, I 2; Passarini, F.2
刊名	GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
	2020-07-01
卷号	63 页码:10
关键词	Material flow analysis Life cycle assessment Sustainable development goals Global warming Circular economy Scenario analysis
ISSN号	0959-3780
DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102093
通讯作者	Ciacci, L.(luca.ciacci5@unibo.it) ; Passarini, F.(fabrizio.passarini@unibo.it)
英文摘要	Copper is widely used in modern technology, but declining ore grades and depletion of natural deposits have raised concerns regarding sustainable demand-supply balance in the long term. The vulnerability to primary copper supply restrictions amplifies for countries dependant on imports, notably many EU Member States. Recycling of post-consumer scrap can provide a valuable source of essential material to the European industry. However, a considerable fraction of collected and processed copper old scrap is exported, while the remaining fraction is either not recovered or lost due to nonfunctional recycling undermining the implementation of a circular economy. In this work, material flow analysis, regression analysis, and life cycle assessment are combined to explore the possible evolution of four scenarios of copper demand in Europe to year 2050 and the potentials for greenhouse gas emissions reduction under material circularity conditions. The results show that for three of the four scenarios, secondary production would not comply with the carbon dioxide emissions reduction target of 50% below 2000 levels neither in case of combined aggressive recycling, moderate decarbonization of electricity, and energy efficiency improvements. In particular, for the scenario that describes a "business as usual" approach, the modelled future domestic demand can only be met by increasing primary inputs and, despite strong efforts to improve recycling at end-of-life, the fraction of old scrap in total metal demand seems likely to achieve 65% at best. Should that scenario ensue, the GHG emissions embodied in EU copper demand might result in an emissions gap of more than 15 TgCO(2) eq or about + 260% the carbon dioxide reduction target. In contrast, the lowest environmental impacts are associated with a scenario emphasizing green technology and more equitable lifestyles. In that scenario, the secondary copper flows will gradually approach the expected demand, laying the foundation for achieving a circular economy with considerable potential for preserving natural capital and mitigating climate change. This possible future, however, requires dramatic changes in the current pattern of material production and consumption, as we discuss.
WOS关键词	CIRCULAR ECONOMY ; DETAILED ASSESSMENT ; METAL PRODUCTION ; SCENARIOS ; INDICATOR ; IMPACT ; STOCKS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000556563400011
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/158198]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Ciacci, L.; Passarini, F.
作者单位	1.Yale Univ, Ctr Ind Ecol, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, New Haven, CT 06511 USA 2.Univ Bologna, Dept Ind Chem Toso Montanari, Alma Mater Studiorum, I-40136 Bologna, Italy 3.Interdisciplinary Ctr Herzliya, Sch Sustainabil, IL-4610101 Herzliyya, Israel 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ciacci, L.,Fishman, T.,Elshkaki, A.,et al. Exploring future copper demand, recycling and associated greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-28[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2020,63:10.
APA	Ciacci, L.,Fishman, T.,Elshkaki, A.,Graedel, T. E.,Vassura, I,&Passarini, F..(2020).Exploring future copper demand, recycling and associated greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-28.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,63,10.
MLA	Ciacci, L.,et al."Exploring future copper demand, recycling and associated greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-28".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 63(2020):10.