Quantifying livestock vulnerability to snow disasters in the Tibetan Plateau: Comparing different modeling techniques for prediction

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101578

	Quantifying livestock vulnerability to snow disasters in the Tibetan Plateau: Comparing different modeling techniques for prediction
	Ye, Tao 1,2,3,6; Liu, Weihang 1,2,3; Mu, Qingyang 1,2,3; Zong, Shuo 1; Li, Yijia 1,7; Shi, Peijun 1,2,3,4,5
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
	2020-09-01
卷号	48 页码:10
关键词	Livestock snow disaster Vulnerability Generalized additive models Random forest Boosted regression trees
ISSN号	2212-4209
DOI	10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101578
通讯作者	Ye, Tao(yetao@bnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Quantitative vulnerability relationships describing the susceptibility of socioeconomic losses in response to climate change are critical for natural disaster loss modeling and risk assessment. Modeling such vulnerability requires methods capable of handling complicated multi-factor, non-linear, and interactive relationships. Here, we compared the performance of generalized additive models (GAM) and random forest (RF) and boosted regression trees (BRT) in quantifying livestock vulnerability to snow disasters in the Tibetan Plateau for both explanatory and predictive purposes. Our results indicated promising explanatory power of these three modeling methods, with deviance-based R-2 up to 0.720. They consistently revealed geophysical and socioeconomic factors that contributed to higher mortality rates. Nevertheless, GAM model failed to identify the critical influence of snow depth, mainly due to its smoothing scheme when fitting models to data. They also differed in the selection of the most important socioeconomic variable to represent prevention capacity. From a predictive perspective, all three modeling methods also showed promising predictive power, yet RF had the smallest prediction error, with less number of predictors used. Therefore, the predictive version of RF may well be the best choice for use in future risk analyses, yet those of BRT and GAM can serve as an alternative if needed.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602404] ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)[2019QZKK0606] ; Fund for Creative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China[41621061]
WOS关键词	REGRESSION TREE ; RANDOM FOREST ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RISK ; CLASSIFICATION ; IMPACTS ; MANAGEMENT ; RESPONSES
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000556556400014
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Fund for Creative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/158132]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Ye, Tao
作者单位	1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster,Minist Edu, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Minist Emergency Management, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 3.Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 4.Peoples Govt Qinghai Prov, Acad Plateau Sci & Sustainabil, Xining 810016, Peoples R China 5.Beijing Normal Univ, Xining 810016, Peoples R China 6.Boston Univ, Frederick S Pardee Ctr Study Longer Range Future, Boston, MA 02215 USA 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ye, Tao,Liu, Weihang,Mu, Qingyang,et al. Quantifying livestock vulnerability to snow disasters in the Tibetan Plateau: Comparing different modeling techniques for prediction[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION,2020,48:10.
APA	Ye, Tao,Liu, Weihang,Mu, Qingyang,Zong, Shuo,Li, Yijia,&Shi, Peijun.(2020).Quantifying livestock vulnerability to snow disasters in the Tibetan Plateau: Comparing different modeling techniques for prediction.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION,48,10.
MLA	Ye, Tao,et al."Quantifying livestock vulnerability to snow disasters in the Tibetan Plateau: Comparing different modeling techniques for prediction".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION 48(2020):10.