Multi-scenario simulation of desertification in North China for 2030

doi:10.1002/ldr.3746

	Multi-scenario simulation of desertification in North China for 2030
	Xu, Duanyang 1; Zhang, Xiaoyu 1,2
刊名	LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT
	2020-10-21
页码	15
关键词	2030 desertification model North China system dynamics
ISSN号	1085-3278
DOI	10.1002/ldr.3746
通讯作者	Xu, Duanyang(xudy@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Since desertification threatens the global environment and the security of societies, predicting its patterns and trends across space and time would inform policy-making strategies for desertification control and sustainable development. China is among the countries most severely affected by desertification, representing 17.93% of its total land area. To better understand the future dynamics of desertification in China, a spatial system dynamics model that coupled natural and human factors was developed to simulate the desertification process in North China in 2030 under nine scenarios. The results showed the model had good applicability and satisfactory accuracy for desertification simulation at the national scale, for which temperature and rainfall were the most sensitive factors driving the process. Current ecological projects and policies were found to be effective for desertification control, which would lead to reversal of desertification in 2030 when coupled with average predicted climate conditions; further, this reversal trend would be accelerated under a humid climate scenario. Although positive ecological policies would promote the reversal of desertification, only a 5% increase of rehabilitated area was obtained when it was coupled with an arid climatic conditions. The latter (aridity) and a passive ecological protection policy would together accelerate desertification expansion, especially in the Yili Basin, in the Houshan region of Inner Mongolia and the Yinchuan Plain. Thus, the ecological projects and policies should be carried on in the long-term to achieve sustainable control and help prevent desertification.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971253] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71573245]
WOS关键词	LAND DEGRADATION NEUTRALITY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SANDY DESERTIFICATION ; COMBATING DESERTIFICATION ; REGIONAL DESERTIFICATION ; RISK-ASSESSMENT ; DYNAMIC-MODEL ; SENSITIVITY ; SYSTEMS ; INTEGRATION
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Agriculture
语种	英语
出版者	WILEY
WOS记录号	WOS:000581084200001
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/157137]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Xu, Duanyang
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Dept Environm & Resources, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, Duanyang,Zhang, Xiaoyu. Multi-scenario simulation of desertification in North China for 2030[J]. LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT,2020:15.
APA	Xu, Duanyang,&Zhang, Xiaoyu.(2020).Multi-scenario simulation of desertification in North China for 2030.LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT,15.
MLA	Xu, Duanyang,et al."Multi-scenario simulation of desertification in North China for 2030".LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT (2020):15.