Future global socioeconomic risk to droughts based on estimates of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in a changing climate

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142159

	Future global socioeconomic risk to droughts based on estimates of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in a changing climate
	Liu, Yujie 1,2; Chen, Jie 1,2
刊名	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
	2021-01-10
卷号	751 页码:12
关键词	Drought risk assessment Hazard Exposure Vulnerability RCP-SSP Climate change
ISSN号	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142159
通讯作者	Liu, Yujie(liuyujie@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	A consistent and equitable global drought risk assessment for multiple regions, populations, and economic sectors at the gridded scale under future diverse climate change scenarios has been the subject of scarce research. Climate change is projected to increase the future hazard of drought and cause consequential damages to socioeconomic systems. The risk assessment of drought caused by climate change can be a bridge between impacts and adaptation. To assess the socioeconomic risk to droughts in a base period and two future periods (2016 to 2035 and 2046 to 2065), the projections of five general circulation models and population and gross domestic product (GDP), land cover, and water resources data were used to analyze the socioeconomic risk under three scenarios combining representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The socioeconomic risk was calculated as the product of three determinants: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The risk of the global population to drought was projected to be highest in 2046 to 2065 under scenario RCP8.5-SSP3, with up to 1.45 x 10(9) persons affected, a 63% increase compared with the base period. The highest risk to GDP (4.29 x 10(13) purchasing power parity $) was possibly in 2046 to 2065 under scenario RCP2.6-SSP1, with the risk increasing 5.64 times compared to the base period. Regions with high socioeconomic risk were primarily concentrated in the East and South Asia, Midwestern Europe, eastern US, and the coastal areas of South America. With climate change, the inequality in future socioeconomic risk to drought among countries is predicted to increase. The ten countries with the highest risks to population and GDP accounted for nearly 70% of the global risk. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671037] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)[2016049] ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRK), CAS[2017RC101]
WOS关键词	POPULATION EXPOSURE ; CHINA ; SCENARIOS ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; CALIFORNIA ; EDUCATION ; IMPACTS ; SEX ; AGE
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000587300800115
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRK), CAS
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156401]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Liu, Yujie
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci UCAS, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Yujie,Chen, Jie. Future global socioeconomic risk to droughts based on estimates of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in a changing climate[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2021,751:12.
APA	Liu, Yujie,&Chen, Jie.(2021).Future global socioeconomic risk to droughts based on estimates of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in a changing climate.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,751,12.
MLA	Liu, Yujie,et al."Future global socioeconomic risk to droughts based on estimates of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in a changing climate".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 751(2021):12.