Assessing changes in extreme precipitation over Xinjiang  using regional climate model of PRECIS

	Assessing changes in extreme precipitation over Xinjiang using regional climate model of PRECIS
	Zhang Yanwei 2; Ge Quansheng 2; Jiang Fengqing 1; Zheng Jingyun 2; Wei Wenshou 1
刊名	寒旱区科学：英文版
	2015
卷号	7.0 期号:002 页码:170
关键词	PRECIS 降水变化区域气候新疆模型评估政府间气候变化专门委员会 SRES 年降水量
ISSN号	1674-3822
英文摘要	In this paper, an analysis, with the simulation of PRECIS （Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies）, was made for future precipitation extremes, under SRES （Special Report on Emission Scenarios） A2 and B2 in IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） AR4. The precipitation extremes were calculated and analyzed by ETCCDI （Climate Change Detection and Indices）. The results show that：（1） In Present Scenario （1961 1900）, PRECIS could capture the spatial pattern of precipitation in Xinjiang. （2） The simulated annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Xinjiang had a significantly positive trend and its variability had been deeply impacted by terrain. There was a strong association between increasing trend and the extreme precipitation＇s increase in frequency and intensity during 1961-2008. Under SRES A2 and B2, extreme precipitation indicated an increasing tendency at the end of the 21st century. The extreme summer pre- cipitation increased prominently in a year. （3） PREC1S＇s simulation under SRES A2 and B2 indicated increased frequency of heavy precipitation events and also enhancement in their intensity towards the end of the 21 st century. Both A2 and B2 scenarios show similar patterns of projected changes in precipitation extremes towards the end of the 21st century. However, the magnitude of changes in B2 scenario was on the lower side. In case of extreme precipitation, variation between models can exceed both internal variability and variability of different SRES.
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/152339]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
作者单位	1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Yanwei,Ge Quansheng,Jiang Fengqing,et al. Assessing changes in extreme precipitation over Xinjiang using regional climate model of PRECIS[J]. 寒旱区科学：英文版,2015,7.0(002):170.
APA	Zhang Yanwei,Ge Quansheng,Jiang Fengqing,Zheng Jingyun,&Wei Wenshou.(2015).Assessing changes in extreme precipitation over Xinjiang using regional climate model of PRECIS.寒旱区科学：英文版,7.0(002),170.
MLA	Zhang Yanwei,et al."Assessing changes in extreme precipitation over Xinjiang using regional climate model of PRECIS".寒旱区科学：英文版 7.0.002(2015):170.