Projected Changes in Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Under Climate Change

doi:10.1029/2019WR024969

	Projected Changes in Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Under Climate Change
	Zhao, Dongsheng 2; Wu, Shaohong 1,2
刊名	WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
	2019-09-01
卷号	55 期号:9 页码:7860-7875
关键词	active layer thickness permafrost climate change Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
ISSN号	0043-1397
DOI	10.1029/2019WR024969
通讯作者	Zhao, Dongsheng(zhaods@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Climate warming would increase the active layer thickness (ALT) of permafrost, which can cause changes in the hydrological cycle, ecological processes, and carbon flux in cold regions. However, changes in permafrost ALT due to climate warming remain poorly quantified, which limits our understanding of environmental change in cold regions. In this study, the Lund-Postam-Jena dynamic vegetation model is coupled to the Kudryavtsev model to examine changes in permafrost ALT on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) under climate change scenarios based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest that the permafrost ALT on the QTP would exhibit a significant increasing trend under the climate change scenarios, and a large increment of ALT may occur in the northwestern QTP. In the near-term (2011-2040), the change in ALT on the QTP is different under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios, with an increment of 5-30 cm. In the mid-term (2041-2070), ALT would deepen further with an obvious reduction in permafrost area, while the increase in ALT decreases from south to north. In the long-term (2071-2099), the average increment of ALT would be greater than 30 cm under the RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the increment in ALT increases from south to north, with a remarkable retreat in permafrost area from south to north.
WOS关键词	EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS ; THAWING PERMAFROST ; VEGETATION ; DYNAMICS ; CMIP5 ; CHINA ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; DEGRADATION ; VARIABILITY
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS记录号	WOS:000492139200021
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/132003]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhao, Dongsheng
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Dongsheng,Wu, Shaohong. Projected Changes in Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Under Climate Change[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019,55(9):7860-7875.
APA	Zhao, Dongsheng,&Wu, Shaohong.(2019).Projected Changes in Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Under Climate Change.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,55(9),7860-7875.
MLA	Zhao, Dongsheng,et al."Projected Changes in Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Under Climate Change".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55.9(2019):7860-7875.