Comparison of the aridity index and its drivers in eight climatic regions in China in recent years and in future projections

doi:10.1002/joc.6137

	Comparison of the aridity index and its drivers in eight climatic regions in China in recent years and in future projections
	Li, Yanzhong 1; Yu, Wenjun 1; Wang, Kaiwen 2; Ma, Xieyao 1
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
	2019-11-30
卷号	39 期号:14 页码:5256-5272
关键词	aridity index attribution climatic regions global climate models (GCMs)
ISSN号	0899-8418
DOI	10.1002/joc.6137
通讯作者	Yu, Wenjun(wj.yu@nuist.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Intense anthropogenic climate changes are expected to increase atmospheric aridity in the 21st century. The aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of annual precipitation (P-re) to atmospheric evaporation (potential evapotranspiration [PET]), represents an efficient indicator of climatic changes. However, the variations and underlying drivers of AI values have not been comprehensively compared in different climatic regions. Using the AI calculated on the basis of bias-corrected precipitation and optimized PET over the period of 1999-2017 and two climate model projections for the coming century, we investigated the response of the AI to climate change and quantified the contributions of climatic factors to AI variations in eight climatic regions in China, that is, the northwest (NW), north-centre (NC), northeast (NE), North China Plain (NCP), east (E), southeast (SE), southwest (SW) and Tibet Plateau (TP). The results indicated that the AI values in seven of the eight climate regions exhibited negative trends from 1999 to 2017, with mean values ranging from -0.0008 in SW to -0.0414 in NC, while the AI values in the TP region showed a significant positive trend, with a value of 0.0124. P-re was the dominant factor for the variations in AI values in all climate regions, with contribution rates from 65 to 308%, followed by decreasing solar radiation in the NW, NC, E, SE and SW regions; deceasing wind speed in NE and NCP; and deceasing actual vapour pressure in the TP. The effect of increasing temperature on the AI trend was offset by other climate factors. By the end of the 21st century, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, the AI will significantly increase in five of the eight regions to values approximately 16.5% higher than those during 1999-2017, and this increase in the AI will be dominated by increasing PET. Overall, the shift in the dominant AI factor from P-re in recent years to PET in the future indicates that more attention should be given to the response of the AI to global warming. Furthermore, regional differences in climate change and AI values during 2018-2,100 will inevitably influence water availability and urgently require the development of adaptation strategies for different climatic regions.
WOS关键词	HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT ; POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; PAN EVAPORATION ; YANGTZE-RIVER ; PRECIPITATION ; SENSITIVITY ; MODEL ; PROBABILITY ; STREAMFLOW ; TRENDS
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	WILEY
WOS记录号	WOS:000492898900004
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/131901]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Yu, Wenjun
作者单位	1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Yanzhong,Yu, Wenjun,Wang, Kaiwen,et al. Comparison of the aridity index and its drivers in eight climatic regions in China in recent years and in future projections[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019,39(14):5256-5272.
APA	Li, Yanzhong,Yu, Wenjun,Wang, Kaiwen,&Ma, Xieyao.(2019).Comparison of the aridity index and its drivers in eight climatic regions in China in recent years and in future projections.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,39(14),5256-5272.
MLA	Li, Yanzhong,et al."Comparison of the aridity index and its drivers in eight climatic regions in China in recent years and in future projections".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 39.14(2019):5256-5272.