Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China

doi:10.1155/2019/2767018

	Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China
	Geng, Xiu 1,2; Wang, Fang 1,2; Ren, Wei 3; Hao, Zhixin 1,2
刊名	ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY
	2019-06-19
卷号	2019 页码:12
ISSN号	1687-9309
DOI	10.1155/2019/2767018
通讯作者	Hao, Zhixin(haozx@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Exploring the impacts of climate change on agriculture is one of important topics with respect to climate change. We quantitatively examined the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield in Northern China using the Cobb-Douglas production function. Utilizing time-series data of agricultural production and meteorological observations from 1981 to 2016, the impacts of climatic factors on wheat production were assessed. It was found that the contribution of climatic factors to winter wheat yield per unit area (WYPA) was 0.762-1.921% in absolute terms. Growing season average temperature (GSAT) had a negative impact on WYPA for the period of 1981-2016. A 1% increase in GSAT could lead to a loss of 0.109% of WYPA when the other factors were constant. While growing season precipitation (GSP) had a positive impact on WYPA, as a 1% increase in GSP could result in 0.186% increase in WYPA, other factors kept constant. Then, the impacts on WYPA for the period 2021-2050 under two different emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were forecasted. For the whole study area, GSAT is projected to increase 1.37 degrees C under RCP4.5 and 1.54 degrees C under RCP8.5 for the period 2021-2050, which will lower the average WYPA by 1.75% and 1.97%, respectively. GSP is tended to increase by 17.31% under RCP4.5 and 22.22% under RCP8.5 and will give a rise of 3.22% and 4.13% in WYPA. The comprehensive effect of GSAT and GSP will increase WYPA by 1.47% under RCP4.5 and 2.16% under RCP8.5.
资助项目	Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China[2016YFA0602704] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41831174] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671201]
WOS关键词	UNIT-ROOT TESTS ; AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ; STATISTICAL-MODELS ; CHANGE ADAPTATION ; PANEL-DATA ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; FUTURE ; PHENOLOGY ; CULTIVAR
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	HINDAWI LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000491871400002
资助机构	Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/131758]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Hao, Zhixin
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 101408, Peoples R China 3.Univ Kentucky, Coll Agr Food & Environm, Lexington, KY 40506 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Geng, Xiu,Wang, Fang,Ren, Wei,et al. Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China[J]. ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY,2019,2019:12.
APA	Geng, Xiu,Wang, Fang,Ren, Wei,&Hao, Zhixin.(2019).Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China.ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY,2019,12.
MLA	Geng, Xiu,et al."Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China".ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY 2019(2019):12.