Defining the robust operating rule for multi-purpose water reservoirs under deep uncertainties

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124134

	Defining the robust operating rule for multi-purpose water reservoirs under deep uncertainties
	Ren, Kang 1; Huang, Shengzhi 1; Huang, Qiang 1; Wang, Hao 3; Leng, Guoyong 2; Wu, Yunchen 1
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
	2019-11-01
卷号	578 页码:12
关键词	Operating rule curve Uncertainty analysis Sensitivity analysis Water supply
ISSN号	0022-1694
DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124134
通讯作者	Huang, Shengzhi(huangshengzhi7788@126.com)
英文摘要	Depending on the concept of optimality, the decision makers responsible for the planning and management of water resources seek to maximize the optimization performance. However, the optimized solutions are vulnerable to failure because decision making in water resources management usually involves factors with deep uncertainties (e.g. runoff conditions, water demand growth, climatic forces, etc.). In this study, we further contribute to the Many-Objective Robust Decision Making framework for defining the robust operating rules of a water supply system of interest. The multi-objective optimization and uncertainty analysis tools were used to reveal the trade-offs between the competing objectives and discover the sensitive factors for the plausible states of the system, respectively. The robust operating rules are demonstrated for the Han to Wei inter-basin water transfer project, which is the most important water diversion project in Shaanxi Province, China. Results show that, although the current operating rules are optimized for the water supply system over the long term, these operating rules cannot deal with the problem of performance degradation under deep uncertainties associated with runoff conditions and water demand growth. The two uncertain factors are the sensitive factors responsible for the failure or success of the system, and robustness of the system may be achieved by reducing the effect of key uncertainties (e.g. reduced water demand growth). Furthermore, there are obvious differences in the robust operating rules across different months, with the key or sensitive months providing the uncertain ranges to likely sustain the success of the system. Finally, the successful frequency of the system derived from the most robust operating rules is 18% higher than that obtained from the current operating rules for alternative states of the world. The robust operating rules offer critical insights into the challenges posed by deep uncertainties and provide a management template for decision making on climate change and complex human activities.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[51879213] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51709221] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFC0405900] ; Planning Project of Science and Technology of Water Resources of Shaanxi[2017s1kj-16] ; Planning Project of Science and Technology of Water Resources of Shaanxi[2017s1kj-19] ; Key laboratory research projects of the education department of Shaanxi province[17JS104] ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)[IWHR-SKL-KF201803] ; Belt and Road Special Foundation of the State Key Laboratory of HydrologyWater Resources and Hydraulic Engineering[2018490711]
WOS关键词	MULTIRESERVOIR SYSTEMS ; DECISION-MAKING ; OPTIMIZATION ; RESOURCES ; CLIMATE ; RISK ; FUTURE ; HYDROPOWER ; FRAMEWORK ; SEARCH
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000497250200098
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Planning Project of Science and Technology of Water Resources of Shaanxi ; Key laboratory research projects of the education department of Shaanxi province ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research) ; Belt and Road Special Foundation of the State Key Laboratory of HydrologyWater Resources and Hydraulic Engineering
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/130106]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Huang, Shengzhi
作者单位	1.Xian Univ Technol, State Key Lab Ecohydraul Northwest Arid Reg China, Xian 710048, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ren, Kang,Huang, Shengzhi,Huang, Qiang,et al. Defining the robust operating rule for multi-purpose water reservoirs under deep uncertainties[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2019,578:12.
APA	Ren, Kang,Huang, Shengzhi,Huang, Qiang,Wang, Hao,Leng, Guoyong,&Wu, Yunchen.(2019).Defining the robust operating rule for multi-purpose water reservoirs under deep uncertainties.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,578,12.
MLA	Ren, Kang,et al."Defining the robust operating rule for multi-purpose water reservoirs under deep uncertainties".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 578(2019):12.