Scheduling Risk Evaluation for the Integrated Design of Blanket System Project for CFETR Based on Fuzzy PRET Method

doi:10.1007/s10894-020-00246-5

	Scheduling Risk Evaluation for the Integrated Design of Blanket System Project for CFETR Based on Fuzzy PRET Method
	Zhang, Ruonan 1; Zhu, Yinfeng 1; Xu, Shuling 2
刊名	JOURNAL OF FUSION ENERGY
	2020-06-12
关键词	Schedule risk PRET method Integrated design Blanket system CFETR Magnetic confinement
ISSN号	0164-0313
DOI	10.1007/s10894-020-00246-5
通讯作者	Zhang, Ruonan(zhangrn_ahjzu@163.com)
英文摘要	In the framework of the conceptual design and engineering design of the Chinese Fusion Engineering Testing Reactor, some preliminary investigation and estimation of the encountered risk factors in the integrated design process of blanket system were carried out. Sub-tasks of the entire project need to be decomposed before performing the integrated design of blanket system in order to perform a risk assessment for each task. To describe the key time of design process and predict the dates of tasks, a fuzzy PERT method is presented. The integrated design of blanket system project is divided into several tasks, which includes the optimistic time, pessimistic time and the most likely time of each task based on the experience of designer and analyst. The earliest start/finish time, latest start/finish time and slack time of each task is calculated by using the fuzzy PERT method. As a result, the critical path is found for scheduling assessment. The completing probability of the project under different requirements during the design period is calculated, which can provide valuable reference for the scheduling assessment of the integrated design of blanket system project.
资助项目	Talent introduction and PhD start-up fund of Anhui Jianzhu University[2018QD58] ; Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province, China[1508085ME84] ; Natural Science Research Project of Colleges and Universities in Anhui Province, China[KJ2019A0789] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2017YFE0300503]
WOS研究方向	Nuclear Science & Technology
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000539967700001
资助机构	Talent introduction and PhD start-up fund of Anhui Jianzhu University ; Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province, China ; Natural Science Research Project of Colleges and Universities in Anhui Province, China ; National Key R&D Program of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.hfcas.ac.cn:8080/handle/334002/103031]
专题	中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院
通讯作者	Zhang, Ruonan
作者单位	1.Anhui Jianzhu Univ, Hefei 230601, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Plasma Phys, Hefei 230031, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Ruonan,Zhu, Yinfeng,Xu, Shuling. Scheduling Risk Evaluation for the Integrated Design of Blanket System Project for CFETR Based on Fuzzy PRET Method[J]. JOURNAL OF FUSION ENERGY,2020.
APA	Zhang, Ruonan,Zhu, Yinfeng,&Xu, Shuling.(2020).Scheduling Risk Evaluation for the Integrated Design of Blanket System Project for CFETR Based on Fuzzy PRET Method.JOURNAL OF FUSION ENERGY.
MLA	Zhang, Ruonan,et al."Scheduling Risk Evaluation for the Integrated Design of Blanket System Project for CFETR Based on Fuzzy PRET Method".JOURNAL OF FUSION ENERGY (2020).