Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

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	Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern
	Yu HZ(余怀忠); Shen ZK; Wan YG; Zhu QY; Yin XC
刊名	Tectonophysics
	2006
通讯作者邮箱	yuhz@lnm.imech.ac.cn ; zshen@ess.ucla.edu ; mcszqy@mail.sysu.edu.cn ; xcyin@public.bta.net.cn
卷号	428 期号:1 页码:87-94
ISSN号	0040-1951
通讯作者	Yu, HZ (reprint author), China Earthquake Adm, State Key Lab Earthquake Dynam, Inst Geol, POB 9803, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
中文摘要	The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.
学科主题	力学
类目[WOS]	Geochemistry & Geophysics
研究领域[WOS]	Geochemistry & Geophysics
关键词[WOS]	SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ; STATIC STRESS ; 1992 LANDERS ; INTERNAL DEFORMATION ; LURR THEORY ; AEGEAN SEA ; M-W ; FAULT ; SEISMICITY ; SEQUENCE
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000242765100005
公开日期	2007-06-15 ; 2007-12-05 ; 2009-06-23
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/15959]
专题	力学研究所_力学所知识产出(1956-2008)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yu HZ,Shen ZK,Wan YG,et al. Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern[J]. Tectonophysics,2006,428(1):87-94.
APA	余怀忠,Shen ZK,Wan YG,Zhu QY,&Yin XC.(2006).Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern.Tectonophysics,428(1),87-94.
MLA	余怀忠,et al."Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern".Tectonophysics 428.1(2006):87-94.