Evaluation of the current state of mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical modeling

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	Evaluation of the current state of mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical modeling
	Arhonditsis, GB ; Brett, MT
刊名	MARINE ECOLOGY-PROGRESS SERIES
	2004
卷号	271 页码:13-26
关键词	ecological modeling model complexity eutrophication aquatic biogeochemical cycles plankton systems
ISSN号	0171-8630
英文摘要	The need for predictive process-oriented planktonic ecosystem models is widely recognized by the aquatic science community. We conducted a meta-analysis of recent mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical models (153 studies published from 1990 to 2002), to assess their ability to predict spatial and temporal patterns in the physical, chemical and biological dynamics of planktonic systems. The selected modeling studies covered a wide range of model complexity, ecosystem-types, spatio-temporal scales and purposes for model development. Despite the heterogeneous nature of this data set, we were able to identify model behavior trends and illuminate aspects of current modeling practice that need to be reevaluated. Temperature and dissolved oxygen had the highest coefficients of determination (respective median r(2) values were 0.93 and 0.70) and the lowest relative error (median RE < 10%), nutrients and phytoplankton had intermediate predictability (median r(2) values ranging from 0.40 to 0.60 and median RE similar to 40 %), whereas bacteria (median r(2) = 0.06) and zoo-plankton (median RE = 70 %) dynamics were poorly predicted. Longer simulation periods (i.e. months to decades) reduced model predictability, and increased model complexity did not improve fit. Aquatic biogeochemical modelers need to be more consistent in how they apply conventional methodological steps during model development (i.e. sensitivity analysis, validation), and the aquatic modeling community should adopt generally accepted standards of model performance. Recent advancements in data assimilation techniques, the combination of the present family of models with goal functions (derived from non-equilibrium thermodynamics) and the development of models with a stronger physiological basis are promising frameworks for obtaining more accurate simulations of planktonic processes.
学科主题	Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Marine & Freshwater Biology; Oceanography
原文出处	INTER-RESEARCH
语种	英语
公开日期	2012-02-13
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/9358]
专题	南海海洋研究所_海洋微食物网高被引文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Arhonditsis, GB,Brett, MT. Evaluation of the current state of mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical modeling[J]. MARINE ECOLOGY-PROGRESS SERIES,2004,271:13-26.
APA	Arhonditsis, GB,&Brett, MT.(2004).Evaluation of the current state of mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical modeling.MARINE ECOLOGY-PROGRESS SERIES,271,13-26.
MLA	Arhonditsis, GB,et al."Evaluation of the current state of mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical modeling".MARINE ECOLOGY-PROGRESS SERIES 271(2004):13-26.