Seasonal prediction skills of FIO-ESM for North Pacific sea surface temperature and precipitation

doi:10.1007/s13131-019-1366-x

	Seasonal prediction skills of FIO-ESM for North Pacific sea surface temperature and precipitation
	Zhao, Yiding 1,2; Yin, Xunqiang 2,3,4; Song, Yajuan 2,3,4; Qiao, Fangli 2,3,4
	2019-01
关键词	seasonal prediction North Pacific sea surface temperature precipitation FIO-ESM climate model
卷号	38
期号	1
DOI	10.1007/s13131-019-1366-x
页码	5-12
英文摘要	The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model (FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study. The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993-2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for midlatitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions. The average skill of the North Pacific variability (NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72 (0.55) when El Nino-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase (out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6% (23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.
会议录	ACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA
会议录出版者	SPRINGER
会议录出版地	233 SPRING ST, NEW YORK, NY 10013 USA
语种	英语
资助项目	Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean[201505013]
WOS研究方向	Oceanography
WOS记录号	WOS:000459469100003
WOS关键词	ADJUSTMENT KALMAN FILTER ; EL-NINO ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; DECADAL OSCILLATION ; ATMOSPHERIC BRIDGE ; OCEAN CIRCULATION ; GULF-STREAM ; ENSO ; ASSIMILATION ; ANOMALIES
内容类型	会议论文
源URL	[http://ir.fio.com.cn:8080/handle/2SI8HI0U/25979]
专题	自然资源部第一海洋研究所
通讯作者	Qiao, Fangli
作者单位	1.Ocean Univ China, Coll Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China 2.Minist Nat Resources, Inst Oceanog 1, Qingdao 266061, Peoples R China 3.Pilot Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Qingdao, Lab Reg Oceanog & Numer Modeling, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 4.Minist Nat Resources, Key Lab Marine Sci & Numer Modeling, Qingdao 266061, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Yiding,Yin, Xunqiang,Song, Yajuan,et al. Seasonal prediction skills of FIO-ESM for North Pacific sea surface temperature and precipitation[C]. 见:.