Long-term trend and fractal of annual runoff process in mainstream of Tarim River

CORC > 新疆生态与地理研究所 > 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 > 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所(2010年以前数据)

	Long-term trend and fractal of annual runoff process in mainstream of Tarim River
	Xu Jianhua ; Chen Yaning ; Li Weihong ; Dong Shan
刊名	CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE
	2008
卷号	18 期号:1 页码:77-84
关键词	CHINA
ISSN号	1002-0063
通讯作者	Xu, JH, Minist Educ, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China
中文摘要	Based oil the time series data from the Aral hydrological station for the period of 1958-2005, the paper reveals the long-term trend and fractal of the annual runoff process in the mainstream of the Tarim River by using the wavelet analysis method and the fractal theory. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) From a large time scale point of view, i.e. the time scale of 16 (2 4) years, the annual runoff basically shows a slightly decreasing trend as a whole from 1958 to 2005. If the time scale is reduced to 8 (2 3) or 4 (2 2) years, the annual runoff still displays the basic trend as the large time scale, but it has fluctuated more obviously during the period. 2) The correlation dimension for the annual runoff process is 3.4307, non-integral, which indicates that the process has both fractal and chaotic characteristics. The correlation dimension is above 3, which means that at least four independent variables are needed to describe the dynamics of the annual runoff process. 3) The Hurst exponent for the first period (1958-1973) is 0.5036, which equals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in chaos. The Hurst exponents for the second (1974-1989) and third (1990-2005) periods are both greater than 0.50, which indicate that the annual runoff process showed a long-enduring characteristic in the two periods. The Hurst exponent for the period from 1990 to 2005 indicates that the annual runoff will show a slightly increasing trend in the 16 years after 2005.
学科主题	水文地理学及水资源
收录类别	SCI
公开日期	2011-08-19
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/10258]
专题	新疆生态与地理研究所_中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所(2010年以前数据)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu Jianhua,Chen Yaning,Li Weihong,et al. Long-term trend and fractal of annual runoff process in mainstream of Tarim River[J]. CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE,2008,18(1):77-84.
APA	Xu Jianhua,Chen Yaning,Li Weihong,&Dong Shan.(2008).Long-term trend and fractal of annual runoff process in mainstream of Tarim River.CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE,18(1),77-84.
MLA	Xu Jianhua,et al."Long-term trend and fractal of annual runoff process in mainstream of Tarim River".CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE 18.1(2008):77-84.