Uncertainty assessment for watershed water quality modeling: A   Probabilistic Collocation Method based approach

doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.04.016

CORC > 北京大学 > 工学院

	Uncertainty assessment for watershed water quality modeling: A Probabilistic Collocation Method based approach
	Zheng, Yi ; Wang, Weiming ; Han, Feng ; Ping, Jing
刊名	水资源进展
	2011
关键词	Uncertainty analysis Sensitivity analysis Water quality model TMDL Nonpoint source pollution Probabilistic Collocation Method NONPOINT-SOURCE POLLUTION ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS PARAMETRIC UNCERTAINTY METROPOLIS ALGORITHM BIOLOGICAL-SYSTEMS HYDROLOGIC-MODELS CATCHMENT MODELS SCALE OPTIMIZATION
DOI	10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.04.016
英文摘要	Watershed water quality models are increasingly used in management. However, simulations by such complex models often involve significant uncertainty, especially those for non-conventional pollutants which are often poorly monitored. This study first proposed an integrated framework for watershed water quality modeling. Within this framework, Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) was then applied to a WARMF model of diazinon pollution to assess the modeling uncertainty. Based on PCM, a global sensitivity analysis method named PCM-VD (VD stands for variance decomposition) was also developed, which quantifies variance contribution of all uncertain parameters. The study results validated the applicability of PCM and PCM-VD to the WARMF model. The PCM-based approach is much more efficient, regarding computational time, than conventional Monte Carlo methods. It has also been demonstrated that analysis using the PCM-based approach could provide insights into data collection, model structure improvement and management practices. It was concluded that the PCM-based approach could play an important role in watershed water quality modeling, as an alternative to conventional Monte Carlo methods to account for parametric uncertainty and uncertainty propagation. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.; http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000292801000007&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=8e1609b174ce4e31116a60747a720701 ; Water Resources; SCI(E); EI; 14; ARTICLE; 7; 887-898; 34
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/154745]
专题	工学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zheng, Yi,Wang, Weiming,Han, Feng,et al. Uncertainty assessment for watershed water quality modeling: A Probabilistic Collocation Method based approach[J]. 水资源进展,2011.
APA	Zheng, Yi,Wang, Weiming,Han, Feng,&Ping, Jing.(2011).Uncertainty assessment for watershed water quality modeling: A Probabilistic Collocation Method based approach.水资源进展.
MLA	Zheng, Yi,et al."Uncertainty assessment for watershed water quality modeling: A Probabilistic Collocation Method based approach".水资源进展 (2011).