Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming

doi:10.1038/nplants.2016.202

CORC > 北京大学 > 城市与环境学院

	Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming
	Zhao, Chuang ; Piao, Shilong ; Wang, Xuhui ; Huang, Yao ; Ciais, Philippe ; Elliott, Joshua ; Huang, Mengtian ; Janssens, Ivan A. ; Li, Tao ; Lian, Xu ; Liu, Yongwen ; Mueller, Christoph ; Peng, Shushi ; Wang, Tao ; Zeng, Zhenzhong ; Penuelas, Josep
刊名	NATURE PLANTS
	2017
关键词	INFRARED HEATER CARBON-DIOXIDE FOOD SECURITY CROP YIELDS IMPACT METAANALYSIS ADAPTATION ECOSYSTEM MODELS MAIZE
DOI	10.1038/nplants.2016.202
英文摘要	Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population1-3. Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. This is an extraordinary challenge. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produce a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of -5.2 +/- 1.4% K-1. Local crop models give a similar sensitivity (-6.3 +/- 0.4% K-1), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (-0.8 +/- 0.3% and -2.4 +/- 3.7% K-1, respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the future yield changes in response to warming by the end of the century (from -1.3% to -9.3% K-1). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (-8.3 +/- 1.4% K-1) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 33%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (-4.2 to -6.4% K-1) (ref. 4). Our study suggests that without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios.; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41530528, 41561134016]; 111 project [B14001]; National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China; European Research Council Synergy grant [ERC-2013-SYG-610028]; MACMIT project [01LN1317A]; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); SCI(E); ARTICLE; 1; 3
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/476294]
专题	城市与环境学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Chuang,Piao, Shilong,Wang, Xuhui,et al. Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming[J]. NATURE PLANTS,2017.
APA	Zhao, Chuang.,Piao, Shilong.,Wang, Xuhui.,Huang, Yao.,Ciais, Philippe.,...&Penuelas, Josep.(2017).Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming.NATURE PLANTS.
MLA	Zhao, Chuang,et al."Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming".NATURE PLANTS (2017).