Debris-Flow Susceptibility Assessment Model and Its Application in   Semiarid Mountainous Areas of the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

doi:10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000229

CORC > 北京大学 > 城市与环境学院

	Debris-Flow Susceptibility Assessment Model and Its Application in Semiarid Mountainous Areas of the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau
	Chen, Jian ; Li, Yan ; Zhou, Wendy ; Iqbal, Javed ; Cui, Zhijiu
刊名	NATURAL HAZARDS REVIEW
	2017
关键词	Catchment unit Semiarid mountainous area Debris-flow Index entropy model Susceptibility assessment ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS UPPER JINSHA RIVER LOGISTIC-REGRESSION MODELS LANDSLIDE RISK ANALYSIS CONDITIONAL-PROBABILITY FREQUENCY RATIO GIS TECHNOLOGY LAKE DEPOSITS EARTHQUAKE
DOI	10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000229
英文摘要	Debris flow is one of the most common natural hazards in the semiarid mountainous areas of the Southeast (SE) Tibetan Plateau. Because of unique geology, geomorphology, and diverse climate conditions, debris-flow susceptibility in the mountainous areas shows significant regionalism. In this study, an index entropy model is adapted for sensitivity analysis of the impact factors of debris flows in the semiarid areas, and the Benzilan-Changbo segment of the upper reaches of the Jinsha River are selected as an area of interest in a case study. Based on the sensitivity analysis, six factors, including, lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, relative relief, catchment system geomorphologic entropy, monthly average precipitation (June-September), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are considered debris-flow susceptibility assessment factors. The results show that landform, lithology, and vegetation are the three most important factors affecting the susceptibility of the debris flow in semiarid mountainous areas. To carry out the case study, the study area is divided into 217 small catchments. The debris-flow susceptibility assessment model is applied to each catchment and then combined into the entire study area using the weighted coefficient method. The susceptibility zonation results show that areas with extremely high and high debris-flow susceptibility are mainly distributed in Changbo-Gongbo in the north, Xulong-Quyagong in the central east, and south of the Jinsha River valley. Based on the model assessment, the areas of extremely high and high debris-flow susceptibility account for 39.6% of the total study area whereas the observed actual debris-flow area of the extremely high and high debris-flow susceptibility regions accounts for 64.9% of the total actual debris-flow area. The success rate of debris-flow prediction by the model is about 68.3% based on area-under-the-curve (AUC) cross validation of the model, which indicates a high promise of using the index entropy susceptibility assessment model for debris-flow prediction in semiarid mountainous areas. (C) 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41571012, 41230743]; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [2652015060]; SCI(E); SSCI; ARTICLE; 2; 18
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/469246]
专题	城市与环境学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Jian,Li, Yan,Zhou, Wendy,et al. Debris-Flow Susceptibility Assessment Model and Its Application in Semiarid Mountainous Areas of the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS REVIEW,2017.
APA	Chen, Jian,Li, Yan,Zhou, Wendy,Iqbal, Javed,&Cui, Zhijiu.(2017).Debris-Flow Susceptibility Assessment Model and Its Application in Semiarid Mountainous Areas of the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau.NATURAL HAZARDS REVIEW.
MLA	Chen, Jian,et al."Debris-Flow Susceptibility Assessment Model and Its Application in Semiarid Mountainous Areas of the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau".NATURAL HAZARDS REVIEW (2017).