Biometeorological modelling and forecasting of monthly ambulance demand for Hong Kong

	Biometeorological modelling and forecasting of monthly ambulance demand for Hong Kong
	Wong, H. T.2,3; Lai, P. C.1; Chen, S.1
刊名	HONG KONG JOURNAL OF EMERGENCY MEDICINE
	2017
卷号	24 期号:1 页码:3-11
关键词	Emergency medical services forecasting statistical model temperature weather
ISSN号	1024-9079
通讯作者	Chen, S.(csissi@connect.hku.hk)
英文摘要	Introduction: Given the aging population in Hong Kong and the ever rising demand for emergency ambulance services, this study aimed to examine the effects of seasonality and weather on the demand for emergency ambulance services in Hong Kong. The feasibility of using time series models and selected weather factors to forecast average daily ambulance demand over a month was also assessed. Methods: Monthly statistics for ambulance demand from 1998 to 2007 were obtained for analysing the effects of seasonality and weather on the demand for emergency ambulance services in Hong Kong. The effectiveness of weather factors in forecasting ambulance demand was also examined by comparing the performance of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model against other commonly used models. Results: The lowest temperatures during cooler months were found to be negatively associated with average daily ambulance demand (adj-R-2=0.38), while the average amount of cloud cover and highest temperatures were found to be positively associated with average daily ambulance demand during hotter months (adj-R-2=0.34). When the analysis was stratified spatially by ambulance command units, Hong Kong Island had the highest adj-R-2 during cool and hot months, reported at 0.55 and 0.46 respectively. With the inclusion of average temperature, the ARIMA models outperformed other models for both short-and long-term predictions. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that weather factors, especially temperature, are significantly related to and useful for predicting ambulance demand.
资助项目	Research Grants Council of Hong Kong[746210] ; Hui Oi Chow Trust Fund Project[21369527]
WOS关键词	HEAT-RELATED MORTALITY ; TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS ; EMERGENCY-DEPARTMENT ; AUSTRALIA ; WEATHER ; ASSOCIATIONS ; TEMPERATURE ; CITIES ; VOLUME
WOS研究方向	Emergency Medicine
语种	英语
出版者	MEDCOM LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000393349000001
资助机构	Research Grants Council of Hong Kong ; Hui Oi Chow Trust Fund Project
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/64919]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Chen, S.
作者单位	1.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Geog, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resource Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Natl Taiwan Univ, Dept Geog, Taipei, Taiwan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wong, H. T.,Lai, P. C.,Chen, S.. Biometeorological modelling and forecasting of monthly ambulance demand for Hong Kong[J]. HONG KONG JOURNAL OF EMERGENCY MEDICINE,2017,24(1):3-11.
APA	Wong, H. T.,Lai, P. C.,&Chen, S..(2017).Biometeorological modelling and forecasting of monthly ambulance demand for Hong Kong.HONG KONG JOURNAL OF EMERGENCY MEDICINE,24(1),3-11.
MLA	Wong, H. T.,et al."Biometeorological modelling and forecasting of monthly ambulance demand for Hong Kong".HONG KONG JOURNAL OF EMERGENCY MEDICINE 24.1(2017):3-11.