Future extreme temperature and its impact on rice yield in China

doi:10.1002/joc.5125

	Future extreme temperature and its impact on rice yield in China
	Zhang, Zhao 1; Chen, Yi 1; Wang, Chenzhi 1,4; Wang, Pin ; Tao, Fulu 2,3,5
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
	2017-11-30
卷号	37 期号:14 页码:4814-4827
关键词	extreme temperature stress climate risk yield loss MCWLA impacts adaptation
ISSN号	0899-8418
DOI	10.1002/joc.5125
通讯作者	Tao, Fulu(taofl@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Rice in China is increasingly suffered from extreme temperature stress (ETS) with ongoing climate change. It is projected that ETS would increase notably across the world in the future. However, the spatio-temporal change of ETS in main rice planting areas in China is still unclear; and the future yield loss caused by ETS (YLETS) has seldom been investigated quantitatively. In this study, we first investigated the spatio-temporal change of ETS across China under 20 climate change scenarios consisting of five global climate models and four Representative Carbon Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Then, using a process-based crop model (MCWLA-Rice), its 30 sets of model parameters and the 20 climate change scenarios, we conducted a super-ensemble assessment to investigate the YLETS over 2020-2049, relative to the baseline period (1980-2009), across China. The results showed that, an increased heat ETS and a decreased cold ETS would be expected for most areas. As a result, a large spatial variability of yield loss would be expected in the future, including severely cold stress for region I (northeastern China, single rice) and region IV (southern China, early rice), but severely heat stress for region III (the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, single rice) and region IV (southern China, late rice). Comparing yield loss from both ETS, a decreased change in yield loss would be mainly expected in region I (northeastern China, single rice), while an increased change for region III (the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, single rice) and IV (southern China, late rice), with less change for region II (southwestern China, single rice) and IV (southern China, early rice). Finally, some adaptation measures were proposed for the ETS-sensitive areas. Our findings are useful to develop effective policies to cope with climate risk and relieve ETS disasters.
资助项目	Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China[31561143003] ; Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571493] ; Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571088] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFD0300201] ; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology
WOS关键词	GLOBAL CROP PRODUCTION ; ORYZA-SATIVA L. ; IRRIGATED RICE ; CLIMATE TRENDS ; WATER-USE ; STRESS ; REDUCE ; INCREASE ; PERIOD ; UNCERTAINTIES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	WILEY
WOS记录号	WOS:000414322800006
资助机构	Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/61134]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Tao, Fulu
作者单位	1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Hazards, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, 11A,Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Hangzhou Normal Univ, Inst Remote Sensing & Earth Sci, Hangzhou 311121, Zhejiang, Peoples R China 5.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Zhao,Chen, Yi,Wang, Chenzhi,et al. Future extreme temperature and its impact on rice yield in China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37(14):4814-4827.
APA	Zhang, Zhao,Chen, Yi,Wang, Chenzhi,Wang, Pin,&Tao, Fulu.(2017).Future extreme temperature and its impact on rice yield in China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37(14),4814-4827.
MLA	Zhang, Zhao,et al."Future extreme temperature and its impact on rice yield in China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37.14(2017):4814-4827.