Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-13582-y

	Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments
	Hasegawa, Toshihiro 1; Li, Tao 2; Yin, Xinyou 3; Zhu, Yan 4,5,6,7; Boote, Kenneth 8; Baker, Jeffrey 9; Bregaglio, Simone 10; Buis, Samuel 11; Confalonieri, Roberto 12; Fugice, Job 13
刊名	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
	2017-11-01
卷号	7 页码:13
ISSN号	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-017-13582-y
通讯作者	Hasegawa, Toshihiro(thase@affrc.go.jp) ; Li, Tao(t.li@irri.org)
英文摘要	The CO2 fertilization effect is a major source of uncertainty in crop models for future yield forecasts, but coordinated efforts to determine the mechanisms of this uncertainty have been lacking. Here, we studied causes of uncertainty among 16 crop models in predicting rice yield in response to elevated [CO2] (E[CO2]) by comparison to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) and chamber experiments. The model ensemble reproduced the experimental results well. However, yield prediction in response to E-[CO2] varied significantly among the rice models. The variation was not random: models that overestimated at one experiment simulated greater yield enhancements at the others. The variation was not associated with model structure or magnitude of photosynthetic response to E-[CO2] but was significantly associated with the predictions of leaf area. This suggests that modelled secondary effects of E-[CO2] on morphological development, primarily leaf area, are the sources of model uncertainty. Rice morphological development is conservative to carbon acquisition. Uncertainty will be reduced by incorporating this conservative nature of the morphological response to E-[CO2] into the models. Nitrogen levels, particularly under limited situations, make the prediction more uncertain. Improving models to account for [CO2]x N interactions is necessary to better evaluate management practices under climate change.
资助项目	National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China[2013AA100404] ; National Science Foundation of China[31561143003] ; Academy of Finland, PLUMES project[277403] ; MAFF ; Global Environment Research of MOE, Japan[S-10-2] ; project of Global Foresight and Strategic Plan ; EC-FP7[613817]
WOS关键词	ATMOSPHERIC CARBON-DIOXIDE ; ORYZA-SATIVA L. ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ELEVATED CO2 ; ENVIRONMENTAL VARIATION ; LEAF-AREA ; SIMULATION-MODEL ; SEASONAL-CHANGES ; CROP PRODUCTION ; BIOMASS GROWTH
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
WOS记录号	WOS:000414233900003
资助机构	National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; Academy of Finland, PLUMES project ; MAFF ; Global Environment Research of MOE, Japan ; project of Global Foresight and Strategic Plan ; EC-FP7
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/61043]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Li, Tao
作者单位	1.Natl Agr & Food Res Org, Tohoku Agr Res Ctr, Morioka, Iwate 0200198, Japan 2.Int Rice Res Inst, DAPO Box 7777, Manila, Philippines 3.Wageningen Univ & Res, Ctr Crop Syst Anal, POB 430, Wageningen, Netherlands 4.Nanjing Agr Univ, Natl Engn & Technol Ctr Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 5.Nanjing Agr Univ, Minist Agr, Key Lab Crop Syst Anal & Decis Making, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 6.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Key Lab Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 7.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 8.Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA 9.ARS, USDA, Big Spring, TX 79720 USA 10.Res Ctr Agr & Environm, CREA, I-40128 Bologna, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hasegawa, Toshihiro,Li, Tao,Yin, Xinyou,et al. Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2017,7:13.
APA	Hasegawa, Toshihiro.,Li, Tao.,Yin, Xinyou.,Zhu, Yan.,Boote, Kenneth.,...&Zhu, Jianguo.(2017).Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,7,13.
MLA	Hasegawa, Toshihiro,et al."Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 7(2017):13.