Global Heat Wave Hazard Considering Humidity Effects during the 21st Century

doi:10.3390/ijerph16091513

	Global Heat Wave Hazard Considering Humidity Effects during the 21st Century
	Chen, Xi 1,2,3; Li, Ning 1,2,3; Liu, Jiawei 4; Zhang, Zhengtao 5; Liu, Yuan 1,2,3
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
	2019-05-01
卷号	16 期号:9 页码:11
关键词	heat waves humidity future scenarios global
ISSN号	1660-4601
DOI	10.3390/ijerph16091513
通讯作者	Li, Ning(ningli@bnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Humidity is a significant factor contributing to heat stress, but without enough consideration in studies of quantifying heat hazard or heat risk assessment. Here, the simplified wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) considering joint effects of temperature and humidity was utilized as a heat index and the number of annual total heat wave days (HWDs) was employed to quantify heat hazard. In order to evaluate the humidity effects on heat waves, we quantified the difference in the number of HWDs over global land based on air temperature and WBGT. Spatial and temporal changes in surface air temperature, relative humidity, WBGT, and the difference in HWDs were analyzed using multi-model simulations for the reference period (1986-2005) and different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Our analysis suggests that annual mean WBGT has been increasing since 1986, which is consistent with the rising trend in surface air temperature despite a slight decrease in relative humidity. Additionally, changes in annual mean WBGT are smaller and more spatially uniform than those in annual mean air temperature as a cancelation effect between temperature and water vapor. Results show that there is an underestimation of around 40-140 days in the number of HWDs per year in most regions within 15 degrees latitude of the equator (the humid and warm tropics) during 2076-2095 without considering humidity effects. However, the estimation of HWDs has limited distinction between using WBGT and temperature alone in arid or cold regions.
资助项目	National Key Research Program of China[2016YFA0602403] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41775103] ; Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation[9172010]
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; STRESS ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS ; MORTALITY ; FREQUENT ; HEALTH ; LONGER ; MODEL ; RISK
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000469517300038
资助机构	National Key Research Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/59103]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Li, Ning
作者单位	1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Minist Emergency Management, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 4.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Minist Educ KLME Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Envi, CIC FEMD, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Xi,Li, Ning,Liu, Jiawei,et al. Global Heat Wave Hazard Considering Humidity Effects during the 21st Century[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,2019,16(9):11.
APA	Chen, Xi,Li, Ning,Liu, Jiawei,Zhang, Zhengtao,&Liu, Yuan.(2019).Global Heat Wave Hazard Considering Humidity Effects during the 21st Century.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,16(9),11.
MLA	Chen, Xi,et al."Global Heat Wave Hazard Considering Humidity Effects during the 21st Century".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 16.9(2019):11.