How to Integrate Labor Disruption into an Economic Impact Evaluation Model for Postdisaster Recovery Periods

doi:10.1111/risa.13365

CORC > 成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 > 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室

	How to Integrate Labor Disruption into an Economic Impact Evaluation Model for Postdisaster Recovery Periods
	Zhang, Zhengtao 1,2; Li, Ning 1,3,4,5; Cui, Peng2,6 ; Xu, Hong 3; Liu, Yuan 1,4,5; Chen, Xi 1,4,5; Feng, Jieling 1,4,5
刊名	RISK ANALYSIS
	2019-06-28
页码	14
关键词	Affected people economic impact flood labor natural disaster risk assessment
ISSN号	0272-4332
DOI	10.1111/risa.13365
通讯作者	Li, Ning(ningli@bnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Evaluating the economic impacts caused by capital destruction is an effective method for disaster management and prevention, but the magnitude of the economic impact of labor disruption on an economic system remains unclear. This article emphasizes the importance of considering labor disruption when evaluating the economic impact of natural disasters. Based on the principle of disasters and resilience theory, our model integrates nonlinear recovery of labor losses and the demand of labor from outside the disaster area into the dynamic evaluation of the economic impact in the postdisaster recovery period. We exemplify this through a case study: the flood disaster that occurred in Wuhan city, China, on July 6, 2016 (the "7.6 Wuhan flood disaster"). The results indicate that (i) the indirect economic impacts of the "7.6 Wuhan flood disaster" will underestimate 15.12% if we do not consider labor disruption; (ii) the economic impact in secondary industry caused by insufficient labor forces accounts for 42.27% of its total impact, while that in the tertiary industry is 36.29%, which can cause enormous losses if both industries suffer shocks; and (iii) the agricultural sector of Wuhan city experiences an increase in output demand of 0.07% that is created by the introduction of 50,000 short-term laborers from outside the disaster area to meet the postdisaster reconstruction need. These results provide evidence for the important role of labor disruption and prove that it is a nonnegligible component of postdisaster economic recovery and postdisaster reduction.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602403] ; International partnership program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[131551KYSB20160002] ; Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation[9172010] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41775103] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41505134]
WOS关键词	OUTPUT ; FLOOD ; RESILIENCE ; FRAMEWORK
WOS研究方向	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Mathematics ; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	WILEY
WOS记录号	WOS:000473960700001
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; International partnership program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/26501]
专题	成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
通讯作者	Li, Ning
作者单位	1.Beijing Normal Univ, MOE, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Minist Emergency Management, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 5.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Surface Proc, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Zhengtao,Li, Ning,Cui, Peng,et al. How to Integrate Labor Disruption into an Economic Impact Evaluation Model for Postdisaster Recovery Periods[J]. RISK ANALYSIS,2019:14.
APA	Zhang, Zhengtao.,Li, Ning.,Cui, Peng.,Xu, Hong.,Liu, Yuan.,...&Feng, Jieling.(2019).How to Integrate Labor Disruption into an Economic Impact Evaluation Model for Postdisaster Recovery Periods.RISK ANALYSIS,14.
MLA	Zhang, Zhengtao,et al."How to Integrate Labor Disruption into an Economic Impact Evaluation Model for Postdisaster Recovery Periods".RISK ANALYSIS (2019):14.