A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns

doi:10.1080/13658816.2018.1514608

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	A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns
	Ma, Ting 1,2,4; Zhu, Rong3 ; Wang, Jianghao 1,2; Zhao, Na 1,2; Pei, Tao 1,2; Du, Yunyan 1,2; Zhou, Chenghu 1,2; Chen, Jie 1,2
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE
	2019
卷号	33 期号:1 页码:81-98
关键词	Human mobility and migration the proportion odds migration probability probability-based modelling
ISSN号	1365-8816
DOI	10.1080/13658816.2018.1514608
英文摘要	The modelling of human mobility and migration patterns has received much attention due to its substantial importance. Despite long-term efforts, we still lack a modelling framework that captures mobility patterns and further obtains a prospective view of movement trends with regards to diverse impacting factors. Here, we propose a proportional odds model of human mobility and migration (POM-HM) that takes a probabilistic approach to model human movements. Our model is based on the migration probability with a log-logistic distribution under the proportional odds assumption. Explanatory variables are introduced into the model by re-parameterizing the probability distribution function. The two resultant functions, namely, the migration strength and cumulative hazard, are used to estimate regional differences among travel fluxes and their tendencies. The performance of the POM-HM in terms of its validity and accuracy is examined and compared with the gravity model and the radiation model. The probability-based modelling framework enables us to investigate regional variations in migrant fluxes consequently further predict potential future patterns. In short, our modelling approach captures the probabilistic nature of human mobility and migration and furthers our understanding of both the spatiotemporal patterns of population movements and the impacts of various driving forces.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771418] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41421001] ; Key Research Program of Frontier Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences[QYZDY-SSW-DQC007] ; National Science and Technology Key Project[2016YFB0502301] ; National Key Basic Research Program of China[2015CB954101]
WOS研究方向	Computer Science ; Geography ; Physical Geography ; Information Science & Library Science
语种	英语
出版者	TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000452083200004
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/31945]
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Ma, Ting
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Res, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ma, Ting,Zhu, Rong,Wang, Jianghao,et al. A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE,2019,33(1):81-98.
APA	Ma, Ting.,Zhu, Rong.,Wang, Jianghao.,Zhao, Na.,Pei, Tao.,...&Chen, Jie.(2019).A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE,33(1),81-98.
MLA	Ma, Ting,et al."A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE 33.1(2019):81-98.