Pricing weather index insurance based on artificial controlled experiment: a case study of cold temperature for early rice in Jiangxi, China

doi:10.1007/s11069-017-3109-7

	Pricing weather index insurance based on artificial controlled experiment: a case study of cold temperature for early rice in Jiangxi, China
	Sun, Qing 1,2; Yang, Zaiqiang 1; Che, Xianghong 3; Han, Wei 1; Zhang, Fangmin 1; Xiao, Fang 1
刊名	NATURAL HAZARDS
	2018-03-01
卷号	91 期号:1 页码:69-88
关键词	Early rice Weather index insurance Artificial controlled experiment Grain Buds Cold
ISSN号	0921-030X
DOI	10.1007/s11069-017-3109-7
通讯作者	Yang, Zaiqiang(yzq6751@163.com)
英文摘要	The growth of early rice is often threatened by a phenomenon known as Grain Buds Cold, a period of anomalously cold temperatures during the booting and flowering stage. As a high yield loss due to Grain Buds Cold will lead to increasing insurance premiums, quantifying the impact of weather on crop yield is crucial to the design of weather index insurance. In this study, we propose a new approach to the estimation of premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance. A 2-year artificial controlled experiment was utilized to develop logarithmic and linear yield loss models. Additionally, incorporating 51 years of meteorological data, an information diffusion model was used to calculate the probability of different durations of Grain Buds Cold, ranging from 3 to 20 days. The results show that the pure premium rates determined by a logarithmic yield loss model exhibit lower risk and greater efficiency than those determined by a linear yield loss model. The premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance were found to fluctuate between 7.085 and 10.151% at the county level in Jiangxi Province, while the premium rates based on the linear yield loss model were higher (ranging from 7.787 to 11.672%). Compared with common statistical methods, the artificial controlled experiment presented below provides a more robust, reliable and accurate way of analyzing the relationship between yield and a single meteorological factor. At the same time, the minimal data requirements of this experimental approach indicate that this method could be very important in regions lacking historical yield and climate data. Estimating weather index insurance accurately will help farmers address extreme cold weather risk under changing climatic conditions.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41475107] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31300420] ; Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu[BK20130987] ; National Science and Technology Support Program during the Twelfth Five Year Plan Period[2014BAD10B07] ; College and University's Graduate Student Innovative Scientific Research Projects of Jiangsu Province ; China Scholarship Council
WOS关键词	AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE ; YIELD RISK ; EFFICIENCY ; VALUATION ; PLAIN
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000424680300004
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu ; National Science and Technology Support Program during the Twelfth Five Year Plan Period ; College and University's Graduate Student Innovative Scientific Research Projects of Jiangsu Province ; China Scholarship Council
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57154]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Yang, Zaiqiang
作者单位	1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ KLME,CIC FEMD, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change ILCEC, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 2.Univ Maryland, ESSIC, College Pk, MD 20737 USA 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Qing,Yang, Zaiqiang,Che, Xianghong,et al. Pricing weather index insurance based on artificial controlled experiment: a case study of cold temperature for early rice in Jiangxi, China[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2018,91(1):69-88.
APA	Sun, Qing,Yang, Zaiqiang,Che, Xianghong,Han, Wei,Zhang, Fangmin,&Xiao, Fang.(2018).Pricing weather index insurance based on artificial controlled experiment: a case study of cold temperature for early rice in Jiangxi, China.NATURAL HAZARDS,91(1),69-88.
MLA	Sun, Qing,et al."Pricing weather index insurance based on artificial controlled experiment: a case study of cold temperature for early rice in Jiangxi, China".NATURAL HAZARDS 91.1(2018):69-88.