Impact assessment of projected climate change on diffuse phosphorous loss in Xin'anjiang catchment, China

doi:10.1007/s11356-017-0790-8

	Impact assessment of projected climate change on diffuse phosphorous loss in Xin'anjiang catchment, China
	Zhai, Xiaoyan 1,2; Zhang, Yongyong 3
刊名	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
	2018-02-01
卷号	25 期号:5 页码:4570-4583
关键词	Diffuse phosphorous loss SWAT (Soil andWater Assessment Tool) Climate change Xin'anjiang catchment
ISSN号	0944-1344
DOI	10.1007/s11356-017-0790-8
通讯作者	Zhang, Yongyong(zhangyy003@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Diffuse nutrient loss is a serious threat to water security and has severely deteriorated water quality throughout the world. Xin'anjiang catchment, as a main drinking water source for Hangzhou City, has been a national concern for water environment protection with payment for watershed services construction. Detection of diffuse phosphorous (DP) pollution dynamics under climate change is significant for sustainable water quality management. In this study, the impact of projected climate change on DP load was analyzed using SWAT to simulate the future changes of diffuse components (carriers: water discharge and sediment; nutrient: DP) at both station and sub-catchment scales under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Results showed that wetting and warming years were expected with increasing tendencies of both precipitation and temperature in the two future periods (2020s: 2021 similar to 2030, 2030s: 2031 similar to 2040) except in the 2020s in the RCP2.6 scenario, and the annual average increasing ratios of precipitation and temperature reached - 1.79 similar to 3.79% and 0.48 similar to 1.27 A degrees C, respectively, comparing with those in the baseline (2000s: 2001 similar to 2010). Climate change evidently altered annual and monthly average water discharge and sediment load, while it has a remarkable impact on the timing and monthly value of DP load at station scale. DP load tended to increase in the non-flood season at Yuliang due to strengthened nutrient flushing from rice land into rivers with increasing precipitation and enhanced phosphorous cycle in soil layers with increasing temperature, while it tended to decrease in the flood season at Yuliang and in most months at Tunxi due to restricted phosphorous reaction with reduced dissolved oxygen content and enhanced dilution effect. Spatial variability existed in the changes of sediment load and DP load at sub-catchment scale due to climate change. DP load tended to decrease in most sub-catchments and was the most remarkable in the RCP8.5 scenario (2020s, - 9.00 similar to 2.63%; 2030s, - 11.16 similar to 7.89%), followed by RCP2.6 (2020s, - 10.00 similar to 2.90%; 2030s, - 9.00 similar to 6.63%) and RCP4.5 (2020s, - 6.81 similar to 5.49%, 2030s, - 10.00 similar to 9.09%) scenarios. Decreasing of DP load mainly aggregated in the western and eastern mountainous regions, while it tended to increase in the northern and middle regions. This study was expected to provide insights into diffuse nutrient loss control and management in Xin'anjiang catchment, and scientific references for the implementation of water environmental protection in China.
资助项目	Natural Science Foundation of China[41671024] ; China Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS[2014041] ; Program for Bingwei Excellent Talents in IGSNRR CAS[2015RC201]
WOS关键词	NONPOINT-SOURCE POLLUTION ; SUSPENDED SEDIMENT TRANSPORT ; SURFACE-WATER QUALITY ; LAND-USE ; BIOGEOCHEMICAL PROCESSES ; PARAMETER SENSITIVITY ; NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT ; MODEL DEVELOPMENT ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; ASSESSMENT-TOOL
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
WOS记录号	WOS:000425770300051
资助机构	Natural Science Foundation of China ; China Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS ; Program for Bingwei Excellent Talents in IGSNRR CAS
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57054]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhang, Yongyong
作者单位	1.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China 2.Minist Water Resources, Res Ctr Flood & Drought Disaster Reduct, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhai, Xiaoyan,Zhang, Yongyong. Impact assessment of projected climate change on diffuse phosphorous loss in Xin'anjiang catchment, China[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH,2018,25(5):4570-4583.
APA	Zhai, Xiaoyan,&Zhang, Yongyong.(2018).Impact assessment of projected climate change on diffuse phosphorous loss in Xin'anjiang catchment, China.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH,25(5),4570-4583.
MLA	Zhai, Xiaoyan,et al."Impact assessment of projected climate change on diffuse phosphorous loss in Xin'anjiang catchment, China".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH 25.5(2018):4570-4583.