Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C

doi:10.5194/esd-9-543-2018

	Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C
	Chen, Yi 1; Zhang, Zhao 2; Tao, Fulu 1,3
刊名	EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
	2018-05-18
卷号	9 期号:2 页码:543-562
ISSN号	2190-4979
DOI	10.5194/esd-9-543-2018
通讯作者	Tao, Fulu(taofl@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	A new temperature goal of "holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels" has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106-2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop-Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2% (-1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 degrees C (2.0 degrees C). In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for crop development and food security in China. Moreover, although the variability of crop yield would increase from 1.5 degrees C warming to 2.0 degrees C warming, the probability of a crop yield decrease would decrease. Our findings highlight that the 2.0 degrees C warming scenario would be more suitable for crop production in China, but more attention should be paid to the expected increase in extreme event impacts.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFD0300301] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFD0300201] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31761143006] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31561143003] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571493] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571088]
WOS关键词	CARBON-DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION ; PAST 3 DECADES ; WHEAT GROWTH ; RICE YIELD ; WATER-USE ; TEMPERATURE STRESS ; CO2 CONCENTRATIONS ; PHOTOSYNTHESIS ; RESPONSES ; TRENDS
WOS研究方向	Geology
语种	英语
出版者	COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
WOS记录号	WOS:000432491100002
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54870]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Tao, Fulu
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Hazards, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Yi,Zhang, Zhao,Tao, Fulu. Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C[J]. EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS,2018,9(2):543-562.
APA	Chen, Yi,Zhang, Zhao,&Tao, Fulu.(2018).Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C.EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS,9(2),543-562.
MLA	Chen, Yi,et al."Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C".EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS 9.2(2018):543-562.