Projection of drought hazards in China during twenty-first century

doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2189-3

	Projection of drought hazards in China during twenty-first century
	Liang, Yulian 1,2; Wang, Yongli 2,3; Yan, Xiaodong 4; Liu, Wenbin 5; Jin, Shaofei 6; Han, Mingchen 7
刊名	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
	2018-07-01
卷号	133 期号:1-2 页码:331-341
ISSN号	0177-798X
DOI	10.1007/s00704-017-2189-3
通讯作者	Wang, Yongli(wangyl@tea.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Drought is occurring with increased frequency under climate warming. To understand the behavior of drought and its variation in the future, current and future drought in the twenty-first century over China is discussed. The drought frequency and trend of drought intensity are assessed using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which is calculated based on historical meteorological observations and outputs of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The simulation results of drought period, defined by PDSI class, could capture more than 90% of historical drought events. Projection results indicate that drought frequency will increase over China in the twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the mid-twenty-first century (2021-2050), similar patterns of drought frequency are found under the three emission scenarios, and annual drought duration would last 3.5-4 months. At the end of the twenty-first century (2071-2100), annual drought duration could exceed 5 months in northwestern China as well as coastal areas of eastern and southern China under the RCP8.5 scenario. Drought is slightly reduced over the entire twenty-first century under the RCP2.6 scenario, whereas drought hazards will be more serious in most regions of China under the RCP8.5 scenario.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi, China[2014GXNSFBA118094] ; National Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi, China[2015GXNSFAA139243] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41565005] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41401037] ; major Science and Technology Project of Guangxi, China[GKAB16380267] ; Guangxi Refined Forecast Service Innovation Team ; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)[2012CB95570003]
WOS关键词	CMIP5 MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; SEVERITY INDEX ; SOUTH-KOREA ; PRECIPITATION ; CLIMATE ; TEMPERATURE ; EVAPORATION ; MANAGEMENT
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER WIEN
WOS记录号	WOS:000436245600027
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi, China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; major Science and Technology Project of Guangxi, China ; Guangxi Refined Forecast Service Innovation Team ; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54671]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Wang, Yongli
作者单位	1.Nanning Meteorol Serv, Nanning 530029, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, CAS Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Temperate East A, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Inst Environm Energy & Sustainabil, Shatin 999077, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 4.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surfacec Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Northeast Inst Geog & Agroecol, Changchun 130012, Jilin, Peoples R China 7.Guangxi Statist Bur, Nanning 530022, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liang, Yulian,Wang, Yongli,Yan, Xiaodong,et al. Projection of drought hazards in China during twenty-first century[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2018,133(1-2):331-341.
APA	Liang, Yulian,Wang, Yongli,Yan, Xiaodong,Liu, Wenbin,Jin, Shaofei,&Han, Mingchen.(2018).Projection of drought hazards in China during twenty-first century.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,133(1-2),331-341.
MLA	Liang, Yulian,et al."Projection of drought hazards in China during twenty-first century".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 133.1-2(2018):331-341.