Population exposure to droughts in China under the 1.5 degrees C global warming target

doi:10.5194/esd-9-1097-2018

	Population exposure to droughts in China under the 1.5 degrees C global warming target
	Chen, Jie 1,2; Liu, Yujie 1; Pan, Tao 1; Liu, Yanhua 1; Sun, Fubao 1; Ge, Quansheng 1
刊名	EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
	2018-08-29
卷号	9 期号:3 页码:1097-1106
ISSN号	2190-4979
DOI	10.5194/esd-9-1097-2018
通讯作者	Liu, Yujie(liuyujie@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Pan, Tao(pantao@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	The Paris Agreement proposes a 1.5 degrees C target to limit the increase in global mean temperature (GMT). Studying the population exposure to droughts under this 1.5 degrees C target will be helpful in guiding new policies that mitigate and adapt to disaster risks under climate change. Based on simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to calculate drought frequencies in the reference period (1986-2005) and 1.5 degrees C global warming scenario (2020-2039 in RCP2.6). Then population exposure was evaluated by combining drought frequency with simulated population data from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). In addition, the relative importance of climate and demographic change and the cumulative probability of exposure change were analyzed. Results revealed that population exposure to droughts in the east of China is higher than that in the west; exposure in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region is the highest, and it is lowest in the Qinghai-Tibet region. An additional 12.89 million people will be exposed to droughts under the 1.5 degrees C global warming scenario relative to the reference period. Demographic change is the primary contributor to exposure (79.95 %) in the 1.5 degrees C global warming scenario, more than climate change (29.93 %) or the interaction effect (-9.88 %). Of the three drought intensities - mild, moderate, and extreme - moderate droughts contribute the most to exposure (63.59 %). Probabilities of increasing or decreasing total drought frequency are roughly equal (49.86 % and 49.66 %, respectively), while the frequency of extreme drought is likely to decrease (71.83 % probability) in the 1.5 degrees C global warming scenario. The study suggested that reaching the 1.5 degrees C target is a potential way for mitigating the impact of climate change on both drought hazard and population exposure.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671037] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41301091] ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS[QYZDB-SSW-DQC005] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS[2016049]
WOS关键词	1.5 DEGREES-C ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TEMPERATURE ; EXTREMES ; IMPACTS ; SCENARIOS ; MODEL ; BASIN
WOS研究方向	Geology
语种	英语
出版者	COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
WOS记录号	WOS:000443078100001
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54424]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Liu, Yujie; Pan, Tao
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.UCAS, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Jie,Liu, Yujie,Pan, Tao,et al. Population exposure to droughts in China under the 1.5 degrees C global warming target[J]. EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS,2018,9(3):1097-1106.
APA	Chen, Jie,Liu, Yujie,Pan, Tao,Liu, Yanhua,Sun, Fubao,&Ge, Quansheng.(2018).Population exposure to droughts in China under the 1.5 degrees C global warming target.EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS,9(3),1097-1106.
MLA	Chen, Jie,et al."Population exposure to droughts in China under the 1.5 degrees C global warming target".EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS 9.3(2018):1097-1106.